Donald Trump’s patience with Vladimir Putin seems to be running out, and their bromance is under pressure. That should be good news for Ukraine. However, it doesn’t automatically mean that the American president is more favorably disposed toward that country.
Trump reacted strongly on Sunday to the largest Russian air attack on Ukrainian cities since the beginning of the war. Putin has “gone completely crazy,” he wrote on Truth Social. “He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers. Missiles and drones are being fired at Ukrainian cities for no reason.”
Putin has not conceded an inch in recent months in talks about possible peace negotiations. In fact, Russia is increasing its attacks on Ukraine. Trump has also noticed this. “We are busy talking and then he fires missiles at Kyiv and other cities,” he told reporters on Sunday. When asked whether he was considering new sanctions against Russia, the president replied: “Absolutely.”
Should that have led to joy in Kyiv, it will have been tempered by a reminder of the fact that Trump is not fond of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He had complained about “American silence” after the Russian air attacks. “Everything that comes out of his mouth causes problems,” Trump wrote on Sunday in the same message as his psychiatric diagnosis of Putin. “I don’t like that. It better stop.”
Kyiv hopes that Putin will anger “his friend” Trump so much that the American president decides to take a harder line against Russia out of spite. Because of Trump’s capriciousness and unpredictability, that is not a very solid foundation.
Criticism of Putin, but no consequences
It was not the first time that Trump expressed his frustration with Putin. He has alluded to more sanctions several times. But these expressions have not led to concrete measures.
The US refused to join when the European Union announced new sanctions last week. Trump does not want to get in the way of possible future trade with Russia. German media, including Süddeutsche Zeitung, reported on Tuesday that the EU and the US are also no longer working together to prevent Russia from evading international sanctions.
Insiders told The Wall Street Journal on Monday that the White House is only considering new sanctions as a last attempt to force Russia to the negotiating table. If that doesn’t work, the US would no longer want to act as a mediator. Trump already made it clear to Ukraine and several other European countries last week that he is seriously considering withdrawing his hands from the “European conflict”.
For Ukraine, that scenario is a nightmare. The country needs American military support to stand its ground against Russia. If Trump decides to turn away from the war completely, it will work in the Kremlin’s favor on every level.
Ukraine still desperately needs the US
The large-scale Russian air attacks underline that American aid is desperately needed for Ukraine. The Russians have bombarded the country with more than two thousand Shahed kamikaze drones and hundreds of missiles in the past twenty days. The Ukrainian air defense is having great difficulty with the attacks. Ukraine needs more Western weapons systems to repel them, plus ammunition for the systems it already has.
Shaheds originally come from Iran, but are now being mass-produced in Russia. Around one hundred kamikaze drones roll off the assembly line every day, The Economist reported. According to Ukrainian intelligence services, Moscow wants to increase that to five hundred per day. Russia also has no shortage of missiles for the time being. The Ukrainian services estimate that Putin has five hundred ballistic missiles in stock and can produce the same number annually.
The arms race in Ukrainian airspace is not just about numbers. Shaheds can now fly at an altitude of more than two thousand meters, for example, while that was previously around two hundred meters. At the end of their flight, they dive towards their targets at around 500 kilometers per hour. The drones carry more explosives than before and are equipped with AI and equipment for electronic warfare.
Russian ballistic missiles can actually only be intercepted by the American Patriot system. After a missile attack on the city of Sumy, in which 35 people were killed last month, Zelensky offered 15 billion dollars (about 13 billion euros) for ten new Patriot launcher installations and associated missiles.
The American reaction was telling: Trump sneered at the request and blamed Ukraine for the Russian invasion. “You shouldn’t start a war against someone who is twenty times bigger than you and then hope that people give you missiles.”