The French president, Emmanuel Macron, is considering recognizing a Palestinian state. Diplomats and experts warn that this step may not help to move Israel towards peace in the Gaza war.
France, together with Saudi Arabia, is organizing a UN conference from June 17 to 20. The conference will discuss a roadmap to a Palestinian state, ensuring Israel’s security.
Macron’s government may recognize Palestine in the context of this meeting, reports Reuters. According to insiders, the French president is leaning towards this decision but has not yet made up his mind.
France would be the first major Western country to recognize a Palestinian state. The country has both the largest Jewish and Muslim populations in Europe, which would give the decision an extra dimension.
French recognition could further increase the growing European criticism of the way Israel is conducting the Gaza war. This could lead to more recognitions. “If France does it, several other countries will follow,” predicted Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide.
‘Symbolic without concrete measures’
Diplomats and experts point out that French recognition would be a purely symbolic step, unless it is accompanied by sanctions or other concrete measures to put pressure on Israel.
It will not be easy to reach such sanctions. Within the European Union, not everyone is on the same page when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A widening of the gap between Europe and the US – Israel’s most important ally – is among the risks.
The Macron government wants to act before a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict becomes definitively out of reach. Paris feels this is very urgent at the moment because Israel is stepping up its offensive in the Gaza Strip and violence by Israeli settlers in the West Bank is increasing.
“We must move from words to deeds. Given the situation on the ground, the prospect of a Palestinian state must be maintained. Irreversible and concrete measures are necessary,” said Macron’s Middle East advisor Anne-Claire Legendre at a preparatory meeting for the UN conference late last week.
UK and Canada don’t want to go that far yet
France received support from the UK and Canada earlier this month. The three countries stated that Israel risks sanctions if the Gaza offensive continues. They also said they are in principle in favor of eventual recognition of a Palestinian state. This earned them accusations of antisemitism from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
According to diplomats, the UK and Canada do not want to recognize Palestine yet. The two countries would rather focus on steps that can change the situations in Gaza and the West Bank. This may take some of the wind out of France’s sails.
Step would be very badly received in Israel
Behind the scenes, Israeli diplomats have been working for months to prevent France from recognizing Palestine. Such a step is seen as a “nuclear bomb” under the relationship between the two countries. France is considered one of Israel’s most loyal allies.
French recognition would be overwhelmingly negatively received in Israel, says Tamir Hayman, director of the independent Israeli think tank Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). It would fit in with the story of Israeli ultranationalists that the world is against Israel, he warns. “It would be a useless waste of time.”
French insiders say that the French government is not paying much attention to that warning. “If there is a moment in history to recognize a Palestinian state, even if only symbolically, I would say that this moment has probably arrived,” a high-ranking official told Reuters.