The chance is high that the global heat record of 2024 will be broken in the next five years. In addition, the 1.5-degree warming limit from the Paris climate agreement is likely to be exceeded more often.
This is according to a new research report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency. The WMO’s calculations show that there is an 80 percent chance that the global annual heat record will be broken between 2025 and 2029.
In addition, there is a high chance that the average temperature of the next five years will be higher than 1.5 degrees, compared to the period between 1850 and 1900. Scientists compare temperatures with that period, which was called the ‘pre-industrial period’. At that time, the burning of coal became increasingly common in industry.
The 1.5-degree limit is an important agreement in the Paris Agreement of 2015. Countries then agreed to strive for a maximum warming of 1.5 degrees. The WMO emphasizes that every bit that the earth warms causes more harmful heat waves, extreme rain, intense drought, the melting of ice caps and rising sea levels.
In the record year 2024, the warming of the earth was higher than 1.5 degrees for the first time. The WMO sees a 70 percent chance that the average temperature in the period from 2025 to 2029 will also be higher than that limit.
Differences between regions
One area warms up faster than another. For example, the warming of the polar regions is much faster. The winters there will be 2.4 degrees warmer than the average temperature of the past 30 years, the WMO predicts. This means that the sea ice around the North Pole is likely to continue to decline.
The WMO predicts that there are areas where precipitation will increase or decrease in the coming years. For example, more rain is expected in Northern Europe, South Asia, Alaska, northern Siberia and the Sahel in Africa. It will be drier in the Amazon.