The next cabinet immediately gets a stack of headache files that all ask for a solution. That costs money: 7 billion euros in 2030. So that amount does not have to be coughed up immediately. But something has to happen, otherwise the problems get bigger.
The next cabinet has to get started with a number of pressing files, is the message at the Ministry of Finance on Friday afternoon. Only the need is not that high that the alarm bells go off.
In that atmosphere it is difficult to make it clear that the aging population, extra defense spending, climate goals, nitrogen problems, a tax revision and the home assignment require a solid approach.
Nevertheless, civil servants have made an attempt in the advice published on Friday from the Budget Space Study Group. “The upcoming cabinets have to get started,” says Bas van den Dungen, top official on Finance, about the list of problem files. “It is very important to take measures for that now.”
Only not all problems in a cabinet term have to be solved. That is simply not possible. The officials also do not advise to write it down in a coalition agreement. The saving objective of 7 billion euros also only needs to be realized in 2030. Then we are at least two cabinets further. “Every cabinet must do its fair share,” says Van den Dungen.
Cut back or increase tax
This study group indicates Grosso Modo how much money a coming cabinet can spend. Or in this case, how much should be saved. It is not intended as a precise task. It is more of an indication that a new cabinet has to send in order not to get into trouble with public finances in the longer term.
This is because there are European rules for which Member States must adhere to. Already a little adjustment can later have major consequences.
There is a logic behind 7 billion euros from the study group. The idea behind it is that the government balance must also be limited in the long term. According to European rules, this should not rise further to a 3 percent deficit.
But again you don’t want to be constantly on that limit, because then as a cabinet you have to adjust when you go over it. Measures that need to be taken quickly are often not the best, they know on finances.
That is why the department recommends steering on a budget deficit of 2 percent in 2030. To achieve that, the government must spend 7 billion euros less or bring in somewhere more with taxes.
Beware of political suicide
A recurring theme in advice and investigations is the approach to aging. That problem is becoming increasingly worse and is now also in the advice of the study group at the top of the list. “If you tackle the aging population, you have a big blow,” says Van den Dungen.
The report contains no further proposals for which measures a cabinet could take. But you can, for example, think of an increase in the state pension age or AOW’ers pay more taxes. Two measures that are also known in The Hague as political suicide.
The increase in the state pension age came in the Rutte II cabinet only because the Netherlands, like the rest of Europe, was in the middle of the financial crisis. And having AOW’ers pay taxes then PvdA leader Wouter Bos cost the election victory in 2006.
There are also less rigorous interventions conceivable. If something happens, Van den Dungen emphasizes. Because if, for example, you do nothing about the nitrogen problem, then that also has an effect on housing. Finance warns that problems will only get bigger if you leave them.
Strangely enough, the urgency of the advice is a bit undisputed by the previous publication of the study group Budget space. That was before the elections in 2023. At that time no less than 17 billion euros had to be found. A lot more than now, while according to critics this cabinet has done little.
“It is not that this cabinet did nothing,” says Van den Dungen. Around 5 billion euros has been cut in the coalition agreement. And the government was also lucky: the economy is doing better than expected.
A Next Cabinet Will Imediately Receive a Stack of Headache Files That All Require A Solution. That costs money: 7 Billion Euros in 2030. That amount does not have to be coughed up immediately. But Something Has to Be Done, Otherwise the Problems Will Get Bigger.
A next cabinet must tackle a number of pressing issues, is the Message at the Ministry of Finance on Friday Afternoon. Only the need is not so great that the alarm bells are going off.
In that atmosphere, it is Difficult to make it clear that the aging population, extra Defense Spending, Climate Goals, Nitrogen Problems, A Tax Revision and the Housing Task Require a Solid Approach.
Neverbertheless, civil servants have made an attempt in the advice published on Friday by the budgetary Room Study Group. “The Coming Cabinets must get to work on it,” Says Bas van den Dungen, Senior Civil Servant at Finance, About The List of Problem Files. “It is very important to take measures for this now.”
However, not all problems have to be solved in one cabinet period. That is simply not possible. The civil servants also do not advise to write that down in a coalition agreement. The Savings Target of 7 Billion Euros Only Needs to Be Achieved in 2030. Then we will at Least Two Cabinets Further. “Each cabinet must do its fair share,” Says van den Dungen.
Cutbacks or Raise Taxes
This Study Group Roughly Indicates How Much Money An Upcoming Cabinet Can Spend. OR in this case, how much needs to be saved. It is not intended as a precise task. It is more an indication of what a new cabinet should focus on in order not to get into trouble with public finances in the longer term.
There are European rules for this that member States must adhere to. Adjusting a little now can have major consequences later.
There is a Logic Behind the 7 Billion Euros from the Study Group. The Idea Behind It is that the Government Balance Must Remain Within Limits in the Long Term. Accordance to European Rules, this May not increase further to a deficit or 3 percent.
But you also don’t want to constantly sit against that limit, because you as a cabinet have to adjust every time you go over it. Measures that need to be tasks quickly are often not the best, they know at finance.
Therefore, The Department advises to aim for a budget deficit or 2 percent in 2030. To Achieve This, the Government must spend 7 Billion Euros Less or Bring in More Somewhere with Taxes.
Watch Out For Political Suicide
A Recurring Theme in Advice and Research is the approach to aging. That problem is Becoming Increasingly Urgent and is now also at the top of the list in the advice of the study Group. “If you tackle aging, you have a big win,” Says van den Dungen.
The report does not contain any proposals for which Measures a Cabinet Could Take. But you could think of an increase in the state pension age or let state pensioners pay more tax. Two Measures that are also Known as Political Suicide in the Hague.
The Increase in the State Pension Age in The Rutte II Cabinet Only Came About because the Netherlands, Like the Rest of Europe, was in the middle of the financial crisis. And Letting State Pensioners Pay Tax Cost Then PvdA Leader Wouter Bos The Election Victory in 2006.
Less rigorous interventions are also coneivable. As long as something happens, Van den Dungen Emphasizes. Because you do nothing to the nitrogen problem, for example, that will also have an effect on housing construction. Finance Warns That Problems Will Only Get Bigger If You Leave Them Alone.
The Urgency of the Advice is Surprisingly Undermined by the Previous Publication of the Budgetary Room Study Group. That was before the elections in 2023. No less than 17 Billion Euros had to be found then. A lot more than now, while critics say this cabinet has achieved little.
“It is not that this cabinet has done nothing,” Says van den Dungen. About 5 Billion Euros Has Been Cut in the Coalition Agreement. And the Cabinet was also Lucky: The Economy is Doing Better Than Expected.