House prices are rising equally faster than expected. ABN AMRO HAS Once Again Adjusted the Expected Price Increase For This Year Upwards. The Main Reasons Are Income Growth and the Shortage of New Homes. However, a decrease in the increase is predicted for 2026.
House prices are expected to rise by 8.7 percent this year, ABN AMRO reports in the New Edition of the Housing Market Monitor. In The Previous Edition from Early July, The Bank had Already Adjusted Its Expectation from 7 to 8 percent.
“It is a Greater Growth Than We Thought,” Says Mike Langen, Senior Housing Market Economist at ABN AMRO. “We started the year with a conservative estimate, because it had Already Grown So Strongly in 2024. But they continuously to rise. We were also surprised.”
“If prices do not increase any further this year, we will already reach an annual increase of 8 percent,” Says Langen. Usually, House Price Increases Decrease from August, But Growth Continues Until November. “House prices do not fluctuate every month. We see no reason for prices to sauddenly tip about.”
The Price Increases Are Mainly Caaased by Higher Incomes. Wages are rising faster than inflation, causing the real disposable income of households to increase by 2.8 percent in the second quarter. This gives room to bid higher on a house.
We Are Already Behind on Last Year This Year
The Disappointing Amount of New Construction is also an important Reason for the Rising Prices. The ScarCity would drive up house prices. To Solve the ScarCity, The Government Wants To Provide A Minimum of 100,000 Extra Homes Annually. But that number has not leg achieved in recent years.
“Last year, only 69,000 homes were added and this year we are already 8 percent Behind on last year,” Says Langen. “We will most likely end up with a lower number this year.”
On a Positive Note, The Number of Housing Construction Projects Has Been Increasing for Two Years. That could mean that more homes will be added again from next year. For that reason – and also because a possible lower increase in Incomes – The Bank Predicts A 3 percent increase in House Prices for 2026.
The bank also sees decreasing price differentences between regions. “Price Increases are usual first noticed in the cities. Then the countryside follows,” Langen Explains. “The cooling of the increase also starts in the cities, while prices in the country side continuous to rise. Then the national price differentials Become narrower. It is not a cause, but it is a strong historical link.”
Finally, there is a limit to how high prayers can still go. Langen: “We see that starters are really at the limit of affordability. It would surprise US if they can find even more room.”