Israel and Iran have been carrying out missile attacks on each other for days. NU.nl readers had many questions about the conflict, which has flared up because Israel wants to thwart the Iranian nuclear program. We have presented the best and most frequently asked questions to two experts.
Because Israel’s attacks are not condemned, it seems as if Israel is ‘allowed’ to have nuclear weapons and Iran is not. Why is that?
According to Middle East expert Paul Aarts, this is a question that too few people ask themselves. “Israel claims to be allowed to have a monopoly on nuclear weapons in the region. That is a very strange situation.” What makes it even stranger, according to him, is that Israel has not signed the nuclear treaty (also known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty), and Iran has.
Koert Debeuf, professor of International Politics and the Middle East at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, emphasizes that the world order is led by the West. “And for the West, it is good if a friend has nuclear weapons, but not if an enemy has them.”
“It is the power of arrogance,” says Aarts. “Because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knows that the United States and many European countries will continue to support Israel.”
Why do Western countries actually continue to support Israel?
According to Debeuf, this may be because many Western countries are struggling with a sense of guilt because of the persecution of Jews during the Second World War. “Countries like the Netherlands and Germany, where a large percentage of Jews were persecuted, are inclined to continue to support Israel.”
Aarts speaks of “double standards.” Many European governments and those of the US simply have friendly ties with Israel, he says. “And you judge friends differently than enemies.”
The Middle East expert notes that Israel is not only kept out of the wind by its allies, but is also militarily supported. “The law of the strongest is important in this regard. It is actually unacceptable, but it does happen.”
Why does Israel, like several Western countries, see Iran as an enemy?
For that we have to go back in time. In 1979, the pro-Western Shah (king) Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was deposed in Iran and the Islamic republic as we know it today was created. Since then, an anti-Western wind has been blowing. That is a thorn in the side of the US and Europe, says Aarts.
“Netanyahu, for example, describes Iran as a terrorist regime that must be caged. That image has grown historically and has become deeply rooted in Western politicians and citizens, especially in the US.”
That image is partly unjustified, according to Aarts. Because although Iran is indeed anti-Western, the country has often opened itself up to diplomatic relations. Such as during the negotiations on a nuclear deal with the United States. “Iran also really wants to get rid of the American sanctions,” says Debeuf.
What does it mean that Iran is asking the US to conclude a ceasefire?
It is a cry for help, Aarts thinks, because Iran has its back against the wall. “There is only one country that can really put Israel in check and that is the US. Naive or not, Iran hopes that American President Donald Trump realizes that the conflict could escalate into a regional war.” And the US can also get caught up in that.
A ceasefire may come at the urging of the US, the experts therefore think. “But only if Trump would want that,” says Debeuf. “And to make a deal, there must also be something in it for him.”
Aarts: “We need to get more clarity about that in the coming days.”
Netanyahu seems to be aiming for the fall of the Iranian regime. What would he want to achieve with that?
In speeches, Netanyahu does indeed call on citizens to stand up against the regime, which he wants to put an end to. According to Debeuf, this has to do with the fact that support for groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah will also disappear if the regime in Iran falls.
“But it is an illusion to think that people will revolt when Netanyahu asks them to and when bombs are falling on the street.”
According to Aarts, Netanyahu’s call is more for show. “I think he wants to neutralize Iran. To do this, he is now creating internal unrest and trying to bring the country to its knees militarily.”
A new regime does not necessarily have to work in Israel’s favor. “It is impossible to predict what a new regime will look like,” says Aarts. “That is why Netanyahu wants Iran to no longer be able to play an important geopolitical role in the Middle East in any way.”
In this way, Israel has the upper hand in the Middle East without competition.
How do Iranians and Israelis themselves feel about the conflict?
Different signals are coming from Iran. For example, a small minority would be happy with Israel’s attacks, because they see this as an opportunity to stand up against the regime. But for the vast majority, the nationalistic feeling is strengthened and the hatred against Israel grows, says Aarts.
Debeuf agrees with this. According to him, an attack on a country often connects the citizens among themselves and a feeling of hatred towards the attacker is strengthened.
In Israel, both the majority of the population and the politicians seem to be behind Netanyahu. “The only question is how long that will last. If the bombs continue to fall in Israel, people will start to wonder whether it was really necessary. That will come back like a boomerang.”
That is why Aarts thinks that public opinion in Israel may have already started to change in recent days. But, he emphasizes, anti-Iranian sentiment is deeply rooted in Israel.