Online radicalization among young people is increasing. There are more and more terrorist networks online where especially vulnerable young people find connection. The threat level in the Netherlands remains at 4. This means there is still a real chance of an attack.
Jihadism remains the biggest threat to the Netherlands, according to a new semi-annual report from the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV). While online terrorist networks are growing, the number of physical networks has decreased compared to last year.
As in the second half of 2024, there have been dozens of attacks and disrupted attack plans in Europe in recent months. Many perpetrators act alone but are often inspired by the terrorist organization Islamic State (IS). The attacks are mainly aimed at Jewish or Israeli targets.
The threat increasingly comes from online networks with young people and minors who create, edit, and distribute jihadist content. There is a risk that people will resort to violence because of this online propaganda. The number of minors arrested in the Netherlands in connection with terrorism has therefore increased in recent years. For example, at the end of April, fourteen young people were arrested for inciting terrorism via TikTok.
This year, a specific IS branch stands out more: the ISIS Khorasan Province (ISKP). This jihadist group is violent and active in, among other places, Afghanistan and Iran. ISKP has several Western targets. For example, the ISKP mentioned the Amsterdam Dance Event and a festival in Rotterdam as possible targets this year, writes the NCTV.
Many vulnerable young people in online right-wing terrorist groups
Young people also radicalize in online right-wing terrorist networks. This group also mainly consists of young people who are looking for their identity and want to give meaning to their lives. According to the NCTV, many of them have psychiatric or psychosocial problems.
Online, these young people easily end up in right-wing extremist groups and chats. Through this route, they can quickly radicalize because extremist language is encouraged and liked. The NCTV calls this development “worrying.”
These young people occasionally come together physically and are often members of multiple chat groups. Many new groups are also being founded. This makes it difficult to determine the size of these terrorist networks. The NCTV calls the chance “real” that these young people will “radicalize at a rapid pace and will resort to terrorist violence.”
The Base is an international, far-right online network that spreads terrorist propaganda. Dutch people are also members of this large network. The organization has been on both the National Sanctions List for Terrorism and the European list of terrorist organizations since last year.
Russian threat is growing, but impact remains limited
With the ongoing war in Ukraine, the threat from Russia is also growing. “The Russian state threat is increasing,” writes the NCTV. This includes espionage, military threats, and influence. Russian disinformation can also be heard in the Netherlands among anti-institutional and right-wing extremists.
Interactions between those groups and Russians are visible, but occur less often in the Netherlands than in other Western countries. For the time being, the impact of those interactions on the extremist and terrorist threat in the Netherlands is limited.