Oranje can secure a spot in the quarter-finals of the European Championship on Wednesday evening with a victory over England. However, a significant defeat against Sarina Wiegman’s team greatly increases the chance that the Netherlands will be eliminated in the group stage.
Oranje defeated Wales 3-0 on Saturday, and France won 2-1 against England. As a result, the Netherlands and France are at the top of Group D after two matches. The Netherlands only needs a victory over England on Wednesday to qualify for the quarter-finals. For France, a victory over Wales will suffice.
If the Netherlands and England draw on Wednesday evening in Zürich and France ‘simply’ wins against Wales later in the evening, then a ‘salon draw’ looms for France-Netherlands on Sunday. In that case, the Netherlands advances as the runner-up, and France advances as the group winner.
There is also a scenario where Oranje loses against England. If the Dutch national team also loses to France on Sunday, then Andries Jonker’s team is eliminated. However, even a victory over the French does not guarantee advancement.
With England having a match against the weak Wales on the menu, the Netherlands, England, and France will likely all end up with six points. The UEFA then looks at the head-to-head results, not the goal difference, as is the case in the Eredivisie.
UEFA looks at head-to-head goal difference
That means that the results of the matches against Wales are not included when determining the final standings. This does not immediately provide a solution, because France won against England, the Netherlands won against France, and England won against the Netherlands.
To determine a final ranking, UEFA looks at the goal difference in the head-to-head matches. France and England are at +1 and -1 respectively after their match, Oranje logically at 0.
The margin of a potential defeat in the match against England is crucial. For example, if the Netherlands loses 3-0 to England, then the English will end up at +2 and the Netherlands at -3, with only the match against France remaining.
In that case, Oranje would have to win 3-0 against France to get above the French again and 5-0 to get above England. Based on the quality of the French, such a big victory is a utopia.
So it is a must to limit the damage in case of a defeat. It will be interesting to see if Jonker’s team still goes all out for a draw in case of a small deficit, or if no extra risk is taken with the above scenario in mind.