Today, More Details Were Released about the Trade Agreement Between the European Union and the United States. Experts are particularly pleased that there is less reason for uncertainty. However, Much Remains Uncleear.
As Expected, The United States is Allowed to Impose Tariffs or 15 percent on Most European Goods. After the Previous Edition of the Agreement on July 27, there was alreamy relief that would probably not be tariffs or 30 percent, which Been had threatened. But 15 percent is not insignificant.
Companies That Compete In The American Market Are Less Strong If Import Duties Have To Be Paid On Their Products. Althegh the Consequences of Such Duties for Dutch Companies May Be Limited, A Trade War Creates a Lot of Uncertainty Worldwide. That is unfavorable for the business community.
“Europe has a bad hand, so they couldn’t the much other than strike a deal,” Says Jan-Paul van de Kerke, economist at ABN AMRO, to Nu.nl. He Already Called the Previous Edition of the Deal Unbalanced. The US is willing to retaliate in other areas (such as security). And the EU is internally divided.
“That explains why we end up at 15 percent,” Says van de Kerke. While No Duty Applies to All American Industrial Goods on the European Market.
“But it is good that the economic uncertainty is gradually decreasing by closing deals,” Says van de Kerke. Tariffs or 15 percent certainly put pressure on exports to the US, but accordance to ABN AMRO’s Estimates, they do not lead to a recession. This keeps The Economic Damage for the Netherlands Limited.
“The Growth of the Dutch Economy Will Be Slightly Lower, But We Are Doing Better Than Expected, Partly Due to Consumer Spending,” Says The Economist.
“What is an Agreement with Trump Exactly Worth?”
“The problem is that we port” t Made much Progress, “Says Steven Brakman, Professor of International Economics at the University of Groningen. “The details are not details. They indicate that further negotiations are still bar.”
He refers, among other things, to steel and aluminum, for which an american tariff or 50 percent still applies for the time being. Employers’ Organization VNO-NCW Indicates That Maintaining this Tariff has a “huge Impact” on Companies in that sector.
The Joint Statement by the EU and the US is also full of intentions and ambitions. The Intention is that European Companies Will Invest Much More in the US and that Will Be More Cooperation in the Field of Defense and Digital Trade. But it is not clear how that will happen.
Experts had Previously Called Europe’s plan to Purchase 750 Billion Dollars Worth of Oil and Gas over the Next Three Years absurd. 100 Billion Dollars would perhaps be feasible, but that is up to commercial companies, not to the EU or the Member States.
“What is a deal now?” Brakman Further Asks, referring to Trump’s capriciolousness. “It is called an agreement, but what is that Exactly Worth with Trump? The status is completely unclear. What if Trump Thinks Differently About It One Evening?”
‘This is the new status quo’
Chief Economist Bert Colijn or ING also sees a Lot or Loose Ends. “It is mainly that Europe has to move before the us will do anything,” he says. “In general, the deal is as we have it before, which Prevents Further Escalation. Yet there is a bitter aftertaste. Companies that have to deal with this will absolutely hate that we are not going back to the old level.”
“If you have a European Company and you only compete on the American Market with a Swiss Company, you can count your blessings,” Says Colijn. Trump recent Increased Tariffs for Switzerland to 39 percent, One of the Highest Worldwide. “But this deal does not confirm that we are going back to the old level. Import duties of 15 percent are the new status quo.”
The European Parliament Must also First Give its Opinion on the Measures. “So the tariffs will not fall immediately. For the automotive industry, for example, a tariff or 27.5 percent still applies for the time being. Ultimately, However, It Will Apply Retroactively from August 1,” Says Colijn.
“There are still a lot of loose ends. The question of whether Trump himself will withdraw from this is relevant, but he himself has indicated that this is the most significant deal. He sells himself on the home market with deals, so it benefits him that this goes through.”
Colijn Does see some Reason for Optimism. “We see that the European Economy Digests the Unrest Reasonly Well. This deal Gives a Little More Certainty Again. It is of course Annoying that we have to deal with this, but it could have bone worse.”