The war between Ukraine and Russia does not appear to be ending anytime soon. This raises questions for NU.nl visitors. Professor of War Studies Frans Osinga answers your questions about the course of the war. “Russia can continue for another two years.”
What is the current status at the front? Is Ukraine really on the losing side? Are we seeing territorial gains by Russia?
“The long-awaited Russian summer offensive has so far failed to materialize. There is no major advance, which you would normally expect in an offensive. The Russian army is only gaining an average of about a hundred meters of territory per day in Ukraine. In contrast, there are large losses: approximately a thousand missing, wounded, and dead per day, plus a lot of damaged or lost equipment, such as tanks and artillery. The limited territorial gain is therefore not proportional to the losses Russia is suffering.”
“Ukraine is meanwhile partially compensating for the shortage of manpower with technological means such as drones. The country is now able to produce millions of drones and is therefore less dependent on foreign arms deliveries. The Russian claim that Vladimir Putin is winning is therefore not correct.”
What is the status of peace negotiations? Will Trump’s fifty-day ultimatum have an effect on Russia?
“Putin thinks he can win the war and therefore sees little reason to negotiate peace. He also seems to pay little attention to statements from the US, including those from Trump. It also doesn’t help that Trump changes his policies a lot. For example, arms deliveries to Ukraine were suddenly stopped by the Pentagon in early July, but resumed after only a week.”
“Trump himself has said that Putin is not interested in peace. He will not stop as long as he thinks he can conquer the provinces of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.”
“In practice, Trump also exerts little pressure to really get Putin to negotiate. Some Russian banks were recently removed from the American sanctions list, and deadlines set by Trump for Putin are constantly being postponed. It is striking that Trump previously put pressure on Ukraine by stopping arms deliveries and no longer sharing intelligence.”
“The Ukrainian cabinet has approved changes within the cabinet and an increase in spending on defense and the defense industry. President Volodymyr Zelensky sees that a majority of the population supports continuing the struggle despite war fatigue. The population absolutely does not want to live under Russian rule. Something that is reinforced by the continuous war crimes of Russia, such as the shelling of cities and civilians yesterday. So there are absolutely no signals that Ukrainians are willing to make concessions to end the war.”
I regularly read that Ukraine is deliberately attacking Russian military targets. Is that correct and does it have an effect?
“The Ukrainian defense is no longer limited to its own territory. Since 2023, they have been carrying out attacks on Russian command centers, ammunition storage, factories, and airfields. Something that was recently intensified with large-scale attacks on Russian airfields where bombers were stationed. With this, Ukraine is also bringing the war to Russian territory, which is a clear political signal to the Kremlin: even the size and depth of Russia no longer offer protection.”
“Many Russians also notice that military targets in their own country are being attacked, but have little opportunity to resist Putin. For parts of the population, the war is even a revenue model: salaries for soldiers have increased and the defense industry is flourishing, while the civil economy is bleeding under the war and inflation is high. Prices of basic products such as butter and eggs are rising sharply. That doesn’t matter to the Kremlin. It doesn’t listen to the Russian population.”
Does the Russian army still have enough volunteers, or is Russia resorting to conscripts?
“It is questionable whether there is even any real talk of volunteers anymore. Although wages are high, older men are also sent to the front who can sometimes barely walk. About 120,000 young Russian men turn eighteen every six months. They receive a military uniform and minimal training and are sent to the front, knowing that they are being slaughtered.”
“In 2024, that situation led to small protests by mothers and wives. But the Kremlin said: ‘These men do not belong to their families, but to us: the state’. That shows how the Kremlin views its soldiers as raw materials of the state.”
Can we now think about an end to the war?
“Christopher Cavoli, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO forces, said earlier this year that Russia can probably continue fighting in Ukraine for about two more years. Russia can do this partly thanks to Chinese and North Korean support. The authoritarian regime can pass on the costs of the war to society by raising prices. Society can then do nothing about it, because rebellion or any opposition is immediately nipped in the bud. For example, we see high-ranking Russians ‘falling’ out of windows. Something can only change within Russia through a coup. You may hope for that, but certainly not count on it.”
“In addition, Moscow indicates that, should Ukraine come under control, countries such as Lithuania are the next targets. Russia wants former Warsaw Pact countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, back as a buffer zone. This concern is not only felt by the Baltic states, but also by Western armies. To prevent this, Europe needs to provide more weapons and troops. And yes, that is a bleak future.”