With two McLarens on the front row and a lot of confidence from Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, the Spanish Grand Prix on Sunday ‘threatens’ to become a McLaren party. Only surprises from Max Verstappen or the Mercedes and Ferrari drivers can spoil that.
Anyone who had pinned their hopes on the FIA intervention in Spain will be disappointed. Piastri and Norris clearly had the fastest car on the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya on Saturday. Verstappen had already stated in advance that he did not expect too much from heavier tests against flexing front wings. Not for the first time, the Limburger was right.
Despite his low expectations, qualifying was a reality check for Red Bull. Verstappen was three tenths short of Piastri on a track with a fair number of fast corners. That is normally the strong point of the Red Bull. Overall, the McLaren was simply stronger.
“It will be very difficult to really put up a good fight,” Verstappen looked ahead to the race. “My race simulation on Friday wasn’t even that bad, but when you see the difference today.”
Piastri was three tenths faster in Q3, in a qualifying session in which he let the fast times roll out of the McLaren much more easily. Verstappen’s ultimate fastest time was a big step at the last moment, but not big enough.
Small jab Piastri handed out to Norris
Piastri also handed out a small jab to Norris, after the latter had him in his grip for a weekend in Monaco. The battle at the front remains interesting because the McLaren drivers are so evenly matched. A trend proved decisive again. Norris made a few mistakes; Piastri didn’t.
“Still, it won’t be that simple in the race,” said Piastri. “It’s not just taking the lead and then cruising to the finish. It will be a real challenge to manage the tires, to time your pit stops well. It will be an interesting race.”
That is not a transparent attempt by the WK leader to make it seem more exciting than it is. Barcelona is notorious as a tire-eater, with many and long corners to the right that put the left front tire on the grill every time. Managing the temperature in that tire becomes crucial, without sacrificing too much speed.
Norris and Verstappen can put pressure on Piastri
This is also the area where Norris, and perhaps even Verstappen, can make it difficult for Piastri. The still somewhat inexperienced Australian sometimes falls short of his teammate in this regard, who is therefore looking forward to the race with confidence.
“It will certainly be very hot. In qualifying it was already difficult to keep the tires good for a lap, so in the race it will be even more difficult,” Norris explained. “But the car has been good all weekend. That reassures me for Sunday.”
Verstappen’s podium place in the sights of pursuers
Behind Verstappen, who starts third, a few drivers have the reigning champion’s third podium place in their sights. George Russell, for example; the Mercedes driver sees the podium as a realistic goal. “Last year I also started fourth and was in the lead here after the first corner. I obviously want to repeat that.”
Lewis Hamilton is also optimistic, coming from fifth place. The Ferrari is often relatively stronger in the race than in qualifying. “I’m going all in, I’m aiming for the podium,” he looked ahead. “The field is very close together, it’s about a few tenths. So I expect a real fight.”
The last to highlight is Hamilton’s teammate Charles Leclerc. He more or less sacrificed qualifying for a tire advantage in the race. As a result, Leclerc starts seventh, but is the only one in the top ten with two fresh sets of medium tires left. An interesting choice for a race in which everyone expects a tire management mess.
Two-stopper guaranteed, but how?
Mario Isola from Pirelli: “You can’t avoid a two-stopper here. I think we will see the mediums and soft tires in action the most. We saw yesterday that the hard tires slip too much, which was also reflected in the times.”
“On paper, a two-stopper with soft-medium-soft is the fastest, although Leclerc and the Haas drivers are the only ones to have saved two sets of mediums. The drivers who start on softs must last until at least lap 12. This is followed by a stint on medium until roughly lap 40, to drive to the finish on softs,” said the Italian. “I would like to add that the undercut is very strong on this circuit.”
Although there were suddenly heavy showers along the north side of the circuit during qualifying on Saturday, it is expected to remain dry and warm on Sunday. The temperature is around 30 degrees Celsius around the start. However, it will be cloudier during the race, which of course also has an influence on the track temperature. For drivers who are really struggling with overheated tires, a few clouds can’t come in front of the sun quickly enough.
The Spanish Grand Prix starts at 3:00 PM.