With Max Verstappen starting seventh, the chances of Dutch success in Sunday’s Austrian Grand Prix are already slim. But the improved McLaren also threatens to move much further out of sight for the reigning champion.
Temperature remains a decisive factor in Formula 1 in 2025; that of the outside air, but especially the track temperature. It rose sharply on Saturday at the Red Bull Ring, causing Verstappen’s car to lose more and more grip. It is a well-known recipe this season, which was further magnified on Saturday. A yellow flag in his final lap added to that.
“And if it’s already so difficult today, I don’t have much confidence in the race either,” said a realistic Verstappen. For years, the Dutchman had the race in Zeltweg in his grip, the Wilhelmus sounded five times. Whether there is a connection remains a guess, but where Verstappen’s chances dwindle, the number of compatriots in the stands also decreases. The race is not sold out, many empty seats could be seen on Saturday.
Those have no further influence on Verstappen’s car. Red Bull does. The team brought updates to the owner’s circuit. But McLaren and Ferrari did too, and they seem to have taken a bigger step for now.
Hope at Ferrari, biggest update of the year at McLaren
On behalf of Ferrari, Charles Leclerc, who starts second, even spoke of ‘hope’. The team is working hard to control the problems with ride height and brought a new floor for that. A new rear suspension will follow.
Improvements were also made during the weekend. “The car already felt good on Friday and after adjustments it went even better today,” said Lewis Hamilton. The Briton starts fourth, so his team starts completely ahead of Mercedes and Red Bull.
But the biggest fish in the pond remains McLaren, which according to Lando Norris even brought “the biggest update of this year”. The car turned out to be much more malleable for the Briton than before. His confidence was a little back and Oscar Piastri was in Norris’ pocket.
Yet the World Cup leader, who starts third, was optimistic. “I don’t intend to be third. I really had the speed to reach the front row.”
Only Mercedes still a bit within reach for Verstappen
McLaren seems even stronger than it already was. And even though Verstappen has already more or less given up the title fight, it remains painful if the gap to his biggest competitors only grows.
Verstappen only has George Russell with the Mercedes somewhat in sight. Without the unfortunate yellow flag for the Limburger, he might have been ahead of the Mercedes leader. They are evenly matched and are also plagued by the same problems.
Mercedes also has a hard time if the car gets too hot under the tires. If Toto Wolff wants to get Verstappen to his team so badly, that trait doesn’t look so good in the vacancy.
With a world title that is increasingly out of sight and a constructors’ title fight in which Red Bull plays no role at all, Verstappen can only prevent McLaren from really disappearing from view on Sunday with an unexpected day of success.
Luck can help with that. The safety car is a welcome guest on the asphalt in Austria. But purely on speed, that won’t work, as far as Verstappen himself is concerned. And then the scenario threatens that this year it will only be about daily successes.
One-stopper an option, two-stopper faster on paper
Strategically, there are two options: “We think a two-stopper is the fastest, with the mediums and the hard tires,” said Mario Isola of Pirelli. All top drivers still have one set of hard tires and two new sets of mediums for this.
Isola: “A one-stopper is also possible. The tire degradation is quite low, lower than expected itself. But on paper you are still seven seconds slower. Overtaking is also quite easy here due to the three DRS zones.”
In terms of weather, the same picture as on Saturday is expected, although it may be slightly warmer. The outside temperature rises to 30 degrees Celsius. The asphalt temperature rises above 45 degrees. In the afternoon, clouds can provide shade. No rain is expected above the Red Bull Ring.
The Austrian Grand Prix starts at 3:00 PM and counts 71 laps.