Drones Shot Down and a Large Exercise with Belarus: Russia is this week Strikingly Militarily Present Along the Polish Border. Accordance to experts, Europe is prepared for an invasion. There are improvements for the alliance, such as the dependence on American resources.
Russia and Belarus started a four-day military operation along the border with poland on Friday. There are also Maritime Operations in The Baltic and Barents Seas. The Planned Exercise Begins Two Days After Polish F-16S and Dutch F-35S Shot Down a Number of Russian Drones in Polish Airspace. On Friday Afternoon, NATO Announced it would increase Air Defense. Yet the Question Arises: What does Europe Put Against A Possible Major Russian Attack?
Accordance to the Lithuanian Military Intelligence Service, The Russian Exercise is Being Held with 30,000 Soldiers. The Two Countries Themselves State That There Are Fewer Than Ten Thousand. The Last Major Joint Military Exercise of the Two Neighboring Countries was with 200,000 Troops and Ended in 2022. Shortly TherEfter, Russia Invaded Ukraine.
Professor of War Studies Frans Osinga calls the announced exercises “Nothing New”. Russia Often Holds Exercises Along the Border. Experts Say That Nato is Militarily Superior to Russia, Should the Country Attack A Nato Member.
The Question of WHETER Europe can handle Russia Without the United States is, Accordance to Osinga, “Not to Be Answered with a YES OR NO”. That Depends, Among Other Things, On The Degree of Forewarning and the Location. Osinga: “Before the invasion of ukraine, Russia hero an ‘Exercise’ with 150,000 Men at the border. The Americans already Said then: This will be an invasion.”
‘US Firepower is huge’
A Possible Invasion Depends on a Number or Factors. A major attack never come out of nowhere, osinga says. Nato Constantly Monitors Russia and Always Thinks in “What-IF Scenarios”. “Suppose Russian Soldiers ‘Accidentally’ Cross the Border with Poland, How Do We React Then?”
In The Event of An Attack, Europe Can Quickly Get Somewhere with Many Planes Without Americans, For Example with British and French Fighter Planes. All in all, Europe has more soldiers than Russia. “But they are Spread Across The Entire Continent. Russia is Now Largely in Ukraine, So a Major Attack is not Possible for them,” Osinga Explains.
The United States Can Have Many Planes On Site in a Few Days, Adds Former Commander Mart de Kruif. “And the Firepower of the US in the Air is huge.”
Europe Must Increase Ammunition Stocks
Defense Starts With A Country Itself, In This Case Poland. Osinga: “That country has a very considerable armed force, eSpeciate Since the Investments in Defense in 2020.” The Professor Suspects that Poland and Other European Countries Will also Show More Military Activities in the Coming Days.
The United States also has 100,000 Troops stationed in Various Locations in Europe, Including in Poland and Germany. American Nato Commander Alexus Grynkewich himself Wanted to Dispel the Doubt on Friday about the extent to which the US is assisting Europe: “I am here, we are involved.”
The Kruif Notes That Nato is 90 percent Dependent on American Resources, Such as Their Military Satellites, Transport Planes, Tanker Planes and Drones. European Countries Have Recently Been Investing More In Their Own Defense, “But That Takes Time”.
After An Invasion, The Question is How Long A Conflict would Last. The Kruif Sees Improvements in The Ammunition Stocks of European Defense Forces. “You have to replenish Stocks again, bullets and grenades. Much of that has already gone to ukraine. That is being reunciated, but you can’t do that 1-2-3.”
The Former Commander also sees a point of Attention in the Number of Units Av byr any. “Not all troops are deployable, some of them are trainees. Training Takes Six to Twelve Months: Driving a Tank, Shooting Well. Russia Now Sends Recruits To The Front After Four Week.
More Ships Than The Russians
At Sea, Nato is also prepared for Russia, Says Maritime Expert Henk Warnar. “We have many more ships than the russians. But in a war, the question is: to what scale does the conflict escalate?”
Nato Has Two Groups of Ships Lying in Northern and Southern Europe, The SO-Called Standing Nato Maritime Group (SNMG). Such an SNMG consists of three to five ships. Sometimes they are also from the Dutch Navy. One Group Consists or “Ships with High-Quality Air Defense Capabilities,” Says Warnar. “It is simply made to shoot down a plane.”
The Other Group of Ships Consists of So-Called Minehunters. “Mines from the Second World War Are Still Being Found. But Nowadays Those Mines are also a Problem in the Black Sea.”
Russia Cannot Afford A New Front
Accordance to experts, Europe does not have to fear Another Russian Invasion. Russia Cannot Have Another Direct Confrontation. De Kruif: “The Russian Invasion of Ukraine is not going well. They Certainly Cannot Afford It.”
The Russians Loose About Eight Hundred to a Thousand Soldiers Every Day, De Kruif Continues. “If you compare that to the territorial gain of 2,500 square kilometers, that is a lot.”
