On Tuesday, the mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu was in prison for exactly half a year. Critics say that he is the victim of a politically motivated operation to suppress his party the CHP. The opposite seems to happen.
Since October last year, hundreds of party members, mayors and officials have been arrested, suspended, deposed or ended up in prison. The offensive reached a provisional climax in March with the arrest of Imamoglu.
The Turkish government always says that the judiciary is independent and simply does its work. But according to professor Seda Demiralp, opinion investigation shows that voters do see the operation against the CHP as politically motivated. “That also applies to floating voters who tend to the AKP of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and even to voters who believe accusations of corruption, for example,” Demiralp told Nu.nl.
That image of a politically motivated operation against the CHP is reinforced by “all kinds of weird decisions and actions,” adds researcher Seren Selvin Korkmaz. For example, lower courts suddenly go against statements of the highest electoral council, while that is not actually allowed.
The experts do not expect that the pressure on the opposition will decrease quickly. “The sitting power benefits from the CHP to distract the CHP and to paint the party as a source of unrest and as corrupt,” says Korkmaz. “Such a distribution and rule tactics is proven successful.”
“The government seems to have decided that it is better when there is talk about politically motivated lawsuits than a sputtering economy,” Demiralp adds.
‘Government is taking a reputation problem’
In such a situation, a government usually has two choices, says Korkmaz. Either you come up with reforms or you choose to increase the oppression. “The current government seems to have chosen the latter.”
But that tactic is not without risk. “The government gets a reputation problem,” says Demiralp. “Voters see it as an anti -democratic action”.
“In a democracy you need a functioning opposition,” adds Kormaz. If you make this black and put it offside, a government is seen as less legitimate. The current government led by Erdogan seems to let go of this democratic basic principle, Demiralp adds. “That does not go unnoticed by the voter. It is not appreciated.”
According to the professor, research shows that even among AKP voters, the dissatisfaction is growing about Erdogan’s socket. And that the economic problems are increasingly seen as a result of the breakdown of democracy in Turkey.
Opposition does not want to know about giving up
In the meantime, the opposition shows itself to be combined. Despite the many arrests and lawsuits, the CHP wants to know no neighborhoods – at least so far. “In such a situation, the supporters want a fighter at the head of the party who can excite things. And they have that in the person of Özgür Özel,” says Demiralp.
And for floating voters who tend to the opposition, it is important that the party leader goes to the hole. That condition also seems to be met.
“Our research shows that the CHP has managed to bind more floating voters in the past six months than the Erdogan AKP,” Demiralp continues.
In short, the CHP voter feels more involved with the party and the doubters are pulled over more often. For example, it seems that the sitting power with the operation against the opposition has taken a dead end.
Why is the government upset with the CHP?
The election of Imamoglu as mayor of Istanbul in 2019 is perhaps the starting point of the irritation of the current power. The AKP of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was no longer in control of the largest city in Turkey and also the economic engine of the country in 25 years. “He will not have anything to do,” at the time, by chance, President Erdogan could be heard about Imamoglu via an open microphone from a journalist.
The irritation increased when the CHP won the local elections in 2024 and Imamoglu was increasingly reflected as a future presidential candidate on behalf of the party.
In addition, the CHP is accused of not wanting to cooperate in a new constitution. The party states that Erdogan must first adhere to the current constitution. Moreover, critics suspect the government that they only want a new constitution to make a subsequent term for Erdogan as president possible.
On Tuesday, The Mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, was in Prison for Exactly Six Months. Critics Say He is the Victim of a Political Motivated Operation to Suppress His Party, The CHP. The opposite Seems to be happening.
Since October Last Year, Hundreds of Party Members, Mayors and Officials have arrested, suspended, dismissed or imprisoned. The Offensive Reached a Provisional Climax in March with the judgment of imamoglu.
The Turkish Government Invariable Says That The Judiciary is Independent and Simply Doing Its Job. But According to Professor Seda Demiralp, Opinion Research Shows That Voters Do See the Operation Against The CHP As Political Motivated. “That also applies to floating voters who tend Towards President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP and even to Voters who Believe Accusations of Corruption, for Example,” Demiralp Told Nu.nl.
That image of a political motivated operation against the CHP is reinforced by “all child or strange decisions and actions,” adds researcher seren selvin korkmaz. For Example, Lower Courts Suddenly Go Against Rulings of the Highest Electoral Council, While That is Actually not Allowed.
The Experts Therefore Do Not Expect The Pressure On The Opposition to Decrease Quickly. “The incumbent Power has an interest in distracting the CHP and Portraying the Party as a Source of Unrest and as Corrupt,” Says Korkmaz. “Such a divide-and-rule tactic has Proven Successful.”
“The Government Seems to have decided that it is better if people talk on the street about political motivated lawsuits than about a sputtering economy,” Demiralp Adds.
‘Government is Creating A Reputation Problem’
In Such A Situation, A Government Usually Has Two Choices, Says Korkmaz. Either you come up with reforms or you choose to increase the oppression. “The Current Government Seems to Have Opted For The Latter.”
But that tactic is not without risk. “The Government is Creating A Reputation Problem for itself,” Says Demiralp. “Voters see it as an anti-democratic action.”
“In a democracy you need a functioning opposition,” Adds Kormaz. If you Blacken This and Put It Out Of Play, A Government is Seen As Less Legitimate. The Current Government Under The Leadership of Erdogan Seems to Be Abandoning This Basic Democratic Principle, Adds Demiralp. “That does not go unnoticed by the voter. It is not appreciated.”
Accordance to the professor, research shows that equally among akp voters, dissatisfaction is growing about Erdogan’s autocracy. And that the economic problems are increasingly seen as a results of the dismantling of democracy in turkey.
Opposition Refuses to give up
The Opposition, Meanwhile, is Showing Itelf to Be Combative. Despite the Many judgment and lawsuits, the CHP – at Least So far – refuses to give way. “In Such A Situation, the supporters want a fighter at the head of the party who can stir things up. And they have that in the person of Özgür Özel,” Says Demiralp.
And for floating voters who tend Towards the opposition, it is important that that party leader goes all the way. That condition also seems to be with.
“Our research shows that the chp has managed to attract more floating voters in the past six months than Erdogan’s AKP,” Demiralp Continues.
In Short, The CHP Voter Feels More Involved in the Party and the Doubters Are More Often over. It seems that the incumbent power has entered a dead end with the operation against the opposition.
Why Is the Government at Odds with the CHP?
The Election of Imamoglu As Mayor of Istanbul in 2019 May Well Be The Starting Point of the Irritation of the Incumbent Power. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP No Longer had A Say in Turkey’s Largest City and also the Economic Engine of the Country for the First Time in 25 Years. “He won the Get Anything Done,” President Erdogan was Accidentally Heard Saying About Imamoglu at the Time via An Open Microphone From A Journalist.
The irritation Increased when the CHP won the local elections in 2024 and imamoglu Became Increasingly Prominent as a Future Presidential Candidate on Behalf of the Party.
In Addition, The CHP is Blamed for Not Wanting to Cooperation on a New Constitution. The Party States That Erdogan Must First Adhere To The Current Constitution. Moreover, Critics Suspect the Government of Only Wanting a New Constitution in order to make another term for Erdogan as President Possible.