With a difference of less than 2 percentage points, the conservative historian Karol Nawrocki won the presidential elections in Poland. This means that the conservatives retain a firm grip on Polish affairs. Who is this new president and how great will his power be?
The 42-year-old Nawrocki is an outsider in Polish politics. The historian had no political experience and was an archivist at the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN). This organization archives crimes of the Nazis and communists when they were in power in Poland.
For the conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), Nawrocki’s lack of political experience was not a problem. The party felt that his “sincere patriotism” compensated for it. Moreover, his “strong character” and “modest working-class background” made him popular in the conservative camp, writes The Economist.
But it wasn’t long before his name was tarnished by reports from the past. The presidential candidate became involved in a number of scandals during the election campaign. Nawrocki, an amateur boxer, admitted to participating in organized fights between hooligans in 2009. “It was a fair fight, whatever you think of the form,” he explained in an election debate.
In addition, there were allegations of fraud, including with his real estate. He also allegedly arranged prostitutes for guests in a hotel where he worked twenty years ago. Nevertheless, there was little reason for PiS to remove him from the election race. The party blamed the government and liberal media for exaggerating the stories.
Nawrocki’s campaign revolved around anti-EU sentiment
In two rounds, Nawrocki competed against his liberal, pro-European opponent Rafal Trzaskowski. He is the mayor of Warsaw and was supported by the center government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The differences between the two candidates could hardly be greater.
Nawrocki’s campaign mainly revolved around proclaiming his anti-EU sentiment. “We do not want to be a province of the European Union,” he said during a rally in April. With that, he is exactly on the same line as PiS, the party that was constantly at odds with Brussels during its eight-year term. The EU then accused Poland of, among other things, dismantling the rule of law.
Yet Nawrocki also deviated from the PiS line, writes news agency Reuters. The presidential candidate spoke out against NATO membership for Ukraine, in an attempt to bind radical right-wing voters to him. PiS is in favor of that. Nawrocki did speak out in favor of military support for Ukraine.
Furthermore, Nawrocki fits perfectly into the conservative PiS profile: according to his supporters, he stands for traditional, patriotic values and is against abortion and LGBTQ+ rights. In thoroughly Catholic Poland, these are positions that resonate with a large part of the population. He is also against European agreements on climate and migration.
Nawrocki can continue to block government policy until the end of his term
In Poland, the position of the president is not the most powerful. However, he can block new laws. The president is also the head of the armed forces and has a lot of say in foreign policy. Since 2023, Tusk’s center government has been in power, but the presidency, in the person of Andrzej Duda, was still in the hands of PiS.
Duda was a thorn in the side of Tusk’s government, which promised to reform the country after eight years of PiS. But Duda’s vetoes repeatedly prevented major changes. The expectation is that Nawrocki will continue on the same footing. This means that the current government can be opposed by the conservative opposition for the rest of its term.
For PiS, Nawrocki’s election victory is an important victory in the run-up to the next parliamentary elections in 2027, when the party hopes to return to power. PiS’s cards are good, especially now that the party holds the presidency. And even if the current government manages to stay in the saddle, sooner or later it will run into Nawrocki again.