Tadej Pogacar is also this year the man to beat in the Tour de France. Which riders can keep him from his fourth overall victory in the coming weeks? NU.nl lists the favorites for the Tour de France 2025.
Favorites according to NU.nl
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Tadej Pogacar⭐⭐⭐⭐ Jonas Vingegaard⭐⭐⭐ Remco Evenepoel
⭐⭐ Primoz Roglic, Enric Mas
⭐ Florian Lipowitz, Carlos Rodríguez, Mattias Skjelmose
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates)
In recent years, Pogacar has already been the best cyclist in the world, but the world champion is head and shoulders above the rest this year. He won races on all kinds of terrains: the Strade Bianche, the Tour of Flanders, and Liège-Bastogne-Liège.
Anyone who thought that all those efforts in the classic spring would break Pogacar was mistaken. The leader of UAE Team Emirates made a statement last month by convincingly winning the first duel with rival Jonas Vingegaard, in the Critérium du Dauphiné.
These were all preliminary skirmishes for the Tour, but Pogacar made an impression by riding away from Vingegaard from the saddle. The Dane from the Dutch Visma-Lease a Bike limited the damage to ‘only’ 59 seconds after eight days.
With João Almeida and Adam Yates as super domestiques, it would be strange if Pogacar did not win the Tour de France for the fourth time. This would leave him one overall victory away from the record, which is held by legends Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, and Miguel Induráin.
Pogacar did not beat around the bush prior to the Tour. He knows that he is the man to beat in France. “It is an honor that I start as the top favorite in the Tour. I hope I can live up to that role.”
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)
Given Pogacar’s supremacy, the question is whether there will be a serious battle for the overall victory in the Tour. The competition must mainly come from Vingegaard of the Dutch Visma-Lease a Bike.
Vingegaard showed in 2022 and 2023 that Pogacar can be beaten in the Tour, but so far it is not the Dane’s year. A concussion, sustained in a crash in Paris-Nice in March, kept him sidelined for a while.
Vingegaard did show in the Dauphiné that he is back to his level, but he could not follow Pogacar on the longer climbs, while that is precisely what he needs to do. It seems unlikely that the leader of Visma-Lease a Bike has closed that gap in a few weeks.
Vingegaard may draw confidence from the Tour route: an individual time trial over 33 flat kilometers is already scheduled for the fifth stage. In general, Vingegaard is at an advantage there.
On the other hand, there are also a few venomous hilly stages on the agenda in the first Tour week, which suits Pogacar better. The riders will not finish uphill for the first time until the tenth stage. The question is whether it will make much difference: last year Pogacar was no less than six minutes ahead of his Danish rival.
Vingegaard does have history a bit on his side. This year, the riders have to climb the Hautacam, the Mont Ventoux, and the Col de la Loze, among others. These are all climbs where Vingegaard rode away from Pogacar in 2022 and 2023 before he won the Tour.
⭐⭐⭐ Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step)
Behind Pogacar and Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel hopes to play a role. The number three of last year’s Tour is the best time trialist of the ‘Big Three’, but he usually loses a lot of time in the high mountains.
Also in the past edition of the Dauphiné, Evenepoel could not follow his rivals Pogacar and Vingegaard uphill. He finished fourth in the most important preparation race for the Tour, more than four minutes behind Pogacar.
Evenepoel also has to compete alone against the power blocks of UAE Team Emirates and Visma-Lease a Bike. His team Soudal Quick-Step tried to recruit an extra helper for Evenepoel last year, but the search stalled at Maximilian Schachmann, a sub-topper in the high mountains. Mikel Landa, the intended super domestique, dropped out with a serious injury.
Evenepoel also struggled with an injury earlier this year, which he says gave him a “terrible winter”. He is therefore humble about his chances in the Tour. “It will be a day-to-day assessment of how it goes. I have to accept that.”
⭐⭐ Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
Behind Pogacar, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel, there are still some riders to consider. Starting with Primoz Roglic. The Slovenian has already won the Vuelta four times and the Giro once. So he has it in him to win the Tour de France.
Yet, it just doesn’t seem to work out for Roglic in the most important cycling race in the world. He finished second in 2020 behind Pogacar after a dramatic denouement, and after that he always had to give up prematurely.
The question is whether he can still measure up to Pogacar and Vingegaard at the age of 35. His form is a big mystery for the time being: he had to give up earlier this year in the Giro and then did not ride any more races. Nevertheless, a place in the top five of the general classification should be possible.
⭐⭐ Enric Mas (Movistar)
With the upcoming stages through the Pyrenees, Enric Mas is completely in his element. The leader of Movistar is usually among the five best climbers in the peloton, as he also proved in the 2020 Tour. He only has two shortcomings: he is not a good time trialist and suffered from descending anxiety for a long time.
Yet a podium place is not unthinkable for Mas. “It is clear that Pogacar and Vingegaard mark an era,” he said in advance. “But this is a Tour like in the old days: anything can happen in the first ten days. We are going to concentrate on the podium.”
⭐ Florian Lipowitz, Carlos Rodríguez and Mattias Skjelmose
No Tour goes by without surprises. Florian Lipowitz from Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe is a rider who can surprise. The 24-year-old German already showed his nose at the window in the Dauphiné with a handsome fourth place in the final classification. In his Tour debut, he will mainly have to assist Roglic, but it is not inconceivable that the crown prince will surpass the king of the team.
Also Carlos Rodríguez from INEOS Grenadiers stands his ground in the high mountains, as evidenced by a ninth place in the Dauphiné and a sixth place in the Tour de Romandie earlier this year. In the past two years, the 24-year-old Spaniard has invariably finished in the top ten in the Tour de France: fifth in 2023 and seventh in 2024.
And then there is Mattias Skjelmose. The 24-year-old Dane from Lidl-Trek showed himself last year with a fourth place in the Vuelta and carried that form through to the classic spring, in which he won the Amstel Gold Race. Little can be said about his current form: after the spring he only rode a race in Andorra. He did win that.