It is a neck-and-neck race in the presidential elections in Poland. Where in the first exit poll the pro-European Rafal Trzaskowski seemed to be heading for victory, the conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki is now in the lead in a second exit poll.
Nawrocki, affiliated with opposition party Law and Justice (PiS), received 50.7 percent of the votes in the latest exit poll. The official results of the elections are expected on Monday. Exit polls have a margin of error of 2 percent.
Immediately after the announcement of the first exit poll, Trzaskowski claimed the election victory. The liberal mayor of Warsaw received 50.3 percent of the votes according to the first exit poll. Nawrocki said in an initial reaction that it was far too early for Trzaskowski to claim victory.
A victory for Trzaskowski would be good for the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The presidential candidate, like Tusk, is a member of the Civic Platform (PO) party and he said in his campaign that he wanted to help Tusk with his ambitions. Although the parliament has most of the power in Poland, the president can block legislation. For Tusk, it would be nice if the next president is well-disposed towards him.
In the previous presidential elections in 2020, Trzaskowski narrowly lost to outgoing President Duda, who comes from the camp of opposition party Law and Justice (PiS). Duda had been president of Poland since 2015.
Not in agreement about NATO membership for Ukraine
The Eurosceptic Nawrocki, a historian and former boxer, campaigned for an immigration stop, among other things.
Trzaskowski and Nawrocki both agreed during their campaigns that a lot of money should be spent on defense, as US President Donald Trump demands of Europe. They also agreed that Poland should continue to support Ukraine in the war.
But where Trzaskowski considers a future NATO membership of Ukraine essential for the security of Poland, Nawrocki said he would put a stop to it if he were president. He believes that is too dangerous a step and says he is afraid that NATO would then end up in a war with Russia.