Elon Musk drew attention on Saturday evening with his plan for a new political party in the United States. The billionaire wants to oppose President Donald Trump. But how realistic is that?
The 54-year-old Musk seems angry. “Especially because his hard work at the Department of Government Efficiency is not taken seriously by Trump,” says Andrew Gawthorpe. As a historian, he specializes in the United States at Leiden University.
The ‘big beautiful bill’, Trump’s law that was passed this week, has further strained relations between the two. According to Musk, that law proves that the president does not take the national debt seriously. For example, the Congressional Budget Office calculated that the national debt would increase by about 3.4 trillion dollars over the next ten years due to Trump’s plans.
Therefore, according to Musk, the United States needs a third party: the America Party. For Gawthorpe it is clear: the party intended by Musk will not be a real counterpart. He mainly calls it a show of power by the businessman. “Musk seems quite naive when it comes to politics and that makes him unbelievable.”
American expert Jelte Olthof agrees. “Musk is mainly getting publicity again,” he says. It is also clear that the break between Trump and Musk is deeper than they previously pretended. “This is another glimpse into Musk’s head,” says Gawthorpe. “He wants to show that he is the richest man in the world and that he can damage Trump’s reputation.”
Musk needs more than a show of power
The question is whether Musk’s party will come at all. Establishing a national party in the US is legally very complicated. First you have to establish state parties. The laws for this are regulated differently per state. “You not only need a lot of signatures, but also a group of lawyers to overcome all legal obstacles,” says Gawthorpe.
The Democrats and Republicans, currently the two major political movements in the US, do not want a third major party to emerge. In addition, American citizens have never been so sure about their vote, says Gawthorpe. “Very few people still make a real choice: they always choose the same party.”
Furthermore, the statement that Musk would like to make is unclear. He always agreed with Trump’s anti-immigration policy and the conservative values towards, among other things, transgender people. The point on which he differs from Trump is therefore mainly the national debt.
“But if you want to reduce that, you can only cut the budgets for healthcare and pensions,” Gawthorpe thinks. “And with that story you don’t make yourself popular with the public.” All in all, a third party has virtually no chance.
Musk can hurt Republicans a bit
However, a possible new party could cause some stir in American politics. For example, according to the experts, Musk could take votes away from the Republicans. This could make it somewhat more difficult for the Republicans to win the presidential elections. According to Americanist Bianca Pander and Olthof, there are enough Republicans who completely agree with Musk in the area of financial responsibility.
In addition, money makes you powerful, especially in the US. Pander sees Musk’s move as “proof that the US needs to work on a democracy where money does not play such a prominent role and must prevent someone from buying influence.”
Because Musk can do that: the more money you have, the more and larger campaigns you can run. The Tesla boss is now focusing on the midterms. These are elections for Congress where he can snatch votes and seats from Trump. In it, Musk focuses on a number of decisive seats. Pander: “Winning those seats is quite possible with his wealth.”
‘Only when Trump is gone can America Party cause problems’
But it is not that far yet. Gawthorpe also doesn’t think it will get that far. “People still love Trump,” he says. Olthof also sees that. “As long as Trump holds sway, I don’t think many Republicans will break with him.”
But Olthof does think that a third party could pose a problem for the Republicans when Trump’s term ends. Such a party can take away votes in the electoral college, which has an influence on the distribution of electors. “The margins in that college are quite small, which can quickly become a problem.”
But for now, Musk is not focusing on the 2028 presidential elections. He himself cannot become president because he was not born in the United States. Someone else would have to lead the America Party.
“There have been billionaires, including Michael Bloomberg, who wanted to be presidential candidates from a third party. But in the end they didn’t because of the enormous costs, while they would never win,” Gawthorpe says. “Musk could pay for it, but it would be a real waste of his money.”