Eating out will become more expensive again this year, ING expects. According to a report by the bank, prices in the catering industry will rise by an average of 5 percent. ING foresees more bankruptcies and business closures because entrepreneurs cannot pass on all costs in the menu prices.
The expected price increase in the catering industry is lower than in the past three years, but still higher than Dutch inflation. According to ING economists, higher food prices and personnel costs in particular are causing more expensive catering.
Many catering entrepreneurs cannot fully pass on the higher costs to customers. Guests stay away from restaurants and cafes if prices become too high. The higher costs then eat into part of the profit, which can cause financial problems.
In the first five months of this year, 154 catering companies went bankrupt, the largest number in years. Restaurants, snack bars and cafes in particular closed their doors. ING thinks that the number of bankruptcies will remain high until the end of the year, as in 2024. High inflation and low economic growth play a role in this.
In addition to the number of bankruptcies, voluntary business closures are also increasing. Both in the first quarter of 2024 and in 2025, significantly more catering companies stopped.
“The market conditions in the catering industry remain challenging,” says ING economist Katinka Jongkind in the report. According to her, innovative restaurants and cafes are keeping their heads above water better. Jongkind mentions the use of artificial intelligence in the catering industry as an example of working more efficiently. Non-innovative catering companies that close often have to deal with an older entrepreneur or limited financial resources, according to the ING economist.
Hotel sector is growing prosperously
ING also expects slight growth for the catering sector: 1 percent in 2025 and 1.5 percent in 2026. Due to higher wages versus lower inflation, consumers will spend more this year and next year than in 2024. At the same time, low consumer confidence and rising catering prices are slowing growth.
ING does see rosy prospects for the hotel sector, despite the planned VAT increase from 9 to 21 percent in 2026. For 2025, the bank expects another increase of 4 percent in the number of hotel stays. ING is also counting on more bookings in the coming years.