Defense expert Ko Colijn has been providing the Dutch with insight into armed conflicts for fifty years. This time, he discusses how US President Donald Trump, consciously or unconsciously, is helping his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in the war in Ukraine.
Putin has lost some credibility because he did not show up in Istanbul last week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was shrewd enough to sign up for a trip to Istanbul, and challengingly added that he would even wait for Putin for a few hours if necessary. If Putin was already considering traveling to Turkey, he hastily changed his mind. Instead, he sent lower officials to the consultation.
But with that, Putin also forced Trump to rush forward, with his impatience as a risk. Trump tried to keep a straight face, but he is now really starting to lose patience with the constant squabbles over pettiness. He then blustered that only a summit between the two of them could lead to a solution. But it stung the vain Trump to board Air Force One empty-handed and fly back to Washington.
Meanwhile, Putin had once again ensured that Trump had snubbed Zelensky twice. First, through his “understanding” of Putin’s absence, and then by describing Zelensky’s clever trick as a missed opportunity, leaving everyone going home unsuccessfully. Putin was willing to overlook Trump’s increasing impatience for such a result. He doesn’t care much about that.
Trump and Putin smoothed over the discontent a bit with a phone call a few days later. With that, they rubbed extra salt into the Ukrainian wounds. The phone call itself yielded little. Yet Trump spoke of a fantastic conversation and expressed the expectation that the Russians were now willing to do business. The opposite was evident from the fact that the Russians bombarded Ukraine with the largest drone attack since the war broke out. Most of the 273 Iranian drones (and at least 120 fake drones) were shot down, but the provocation was no less for that.
Putin Pays The Price, Even Without Pressure from Trump
After the phone call, Trump briefed some European allies. These were stunned by his cheering. They were even more stunned when Trump added that the US would really throw in the towel if there were no peace talks. According to the Americans, Ukraine is and remains a European matter. Putin doesn’t need a better encouragement.
Perhaps it is a calculated strategy to corner Putin, because the Russian leader is paying a high price for the war. Inflation in Russia is rising by 10 percent annually. Defense spending has doubled in the past three years to $150 billion (about 132 billion euros). That is now a third of the entire Russian budget. In addition, Putin has to pay North Korea $20 billion for the 12,000 soldiers and grenades he received from them.
Continuing to fight on the same footing takes a high, bloody toll, but Putin doesn’t seem to mind. This year alone, an estimated 450,000 Russian soldiers will die, an average of 1,250 per day. The Russians have to cut back on expenses other than military (such as social and medical expenses). The budget deficit is $30 billion (more than 26 billion euros) per year. And that while a military victory is no longer in it for Putin. He, too, has an interest in an honorable end at the negotiating table.
The Russian war in Ukraine exposes a wider pattern. Leaders without opposition do not simply end their war. Negotiations or decisive battles are not reasons to stop. Someone like Putin, but also Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has a personal interest in ‘their’ war. As long as it continues, they remain out of the hands of justice and do not have to be accountable.
Only the fall of the regime can end such a personal war. That can be from inside or outside, or with a revolt of the people. That chance is small in Russia, where Putin has surrounded himself with yes-men and wiped out all opposition. He has thus become a hermit in the Russian Empire and has therefore become completely entrenched in his war.