The conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki has won the Polish presidential election. Nawrocki’s victory comes as a blow to the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Nawrocki was supported by the Law and Justice party (PiS), which was in power in Poland between 2015 and 2023. During this period, the party became notorious for dismantling the rule of law and discriminating against minorities. Poland regularly clashed with the European Union during the PiS era.
In the second round of the Polish presidential elections, Nawrocki competed against the liberal and pro-European candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, who is now the mayor of Warsaw. Trzaskowski was supported by Prime Minister Tusk.
Initially, Trzaskowski narrowly led in the exit polls, but Nawrocki caught up during the night. On Monday morning, it became clear that the conservative candidate was the winner with a narrow majority of just under 51 percent of the votes.
Although the president is not the most powerful position in Poland, he or she does have relatively a lot of power. A president can veto legislation, which can be a significant obstacle for the government. Tusk’s government has been dealing with PiS President Andrzej Duda since he took office in December 2023. He is stepping down because he has served two terms.
Nawrocki’s victory puts relations in Tusk’s lame-duck coalition on edge
Tusk won the 2023 elections by forming a broad coalition against PiS, which was ideologically very diverse. This broad coalition managed to prevent PiS from gaining a majority. Tusk was then able to form a government and promised to reform Poland after eight years of PiS. Little progress has been made in the past year and a half, partly due to the vetoes of President Duda.
Nawrocki’s victory can be seen as a blow to Tusk’s government. It does not appear that his government will be able to implement major reforms before the next parliamentary elections in 2027. Moreover, the lack of impact puts the relations within his broad coalition on edge.
A weakened government of Tusk also increases PiS’s chances in the elections in two years. The conservative party is very critical of the rights of LGBTQ+ people and restricted abortion rights. The party also became notorious for dismissing judges and establishing a constitutional court that critics say was politically biased.