Israel has started a new ground offensive in Gaza City. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government still has no clear answer to what the future of the Gaza Strip should look like. We look at three possible scenarios.
Over the past twenty years, various Israeli cabinets have used the split between Gaza (Hamas) and the West Bank (Palestinian authority, PA) to play the Palestinians and retain the PA from an effective striving to a Palestinian state. Netanyahu is considered one of the great drivers of that policy.
Israel treated Hamas as an (indirect) discussion partner and allows the extremist organization to receive financial support from abroad. The number of work permits for Gazans who wanted to work in Israel doubled under Netanyahu: from about ten thousand to around twenty thousand.
At the same time, Gaza was surrounded by (often automated) lines of defense that had to guarantee Israeli safety. The Hamas terror attacks on October 7, 2023 horribly put an end to the idea that Israel could encapsulate and forget the Palestinian issue. In the past two years, the Israeli reaction was so violent that the country is now being accused of genocide from several corners.
For the Israeli government and most Jewish Israelis, the first scenario we are looking at is now an absolute no-go.
Israeli troops withdraw from the Gaza Strip. The blockade of the enclave – the Israeli control over the external borders – is tightened.
Experts point out that Hamas would not consider a long-term ceasefire, in which the group continues to be in charge in Gaza, not as the forerunner of a sustainable peace. More as a combat break in which both camps prepare for the next round of violence. Even if Israelis can get a business with Hamas, that remains a risk.
The bottom line is that Gaza needs a form of civil authority, whatever happens. Alternatives are conceivable for the maintenance of a Hamas regime, but they are difficult to realize.
For example, the Palestinian authority feels little to play a role in the Gaza board in this scenario. The government of leader Mahmoud Abbas is corrupt and ineffective. Many Palestinians see the Pa as Marionet of Israel and that would not get much better. The PA does not want to return “driving on an Israeli tank” to Gaza, Abbas told the US in 2023. Arab countries in the region are also not interested in such a role as Gaza’s director. The chances that, for example, the UN (which Israel has little good to say about) can deliver a kind of multinational interim government or peace force are limited.
Israel could try to raise a new Palestinian civil administration in Gaza, but experts consider it inevitable that this would ultimately be infiltrated by Hamas or similar groups.
Israel is binding in the north of the Gaza Strip and establishes military buffer zones and settlements there. The Gazan population is forced to move, with which the south of the enclave turns into a huge refugee camp.
The buffer zones would serve to monitor the safety of southern Israeli towns and villages. Western allies of Israel would protest against the state of affairs.
Iran and his Lebanese ally Hezbollah have been crushed by Israel in the past year. That does not alter the fact that this scenario, just like the next scenario (full occupation), would lead to more regional instability and an increased risk of conflicts if they will regain strength in the future.
Before October 7, 2023, Israel tried to normalize relations with Arab countries in the region. Taking diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia is still a wish in Tel Aviv. Among the populations of Arab countries, a partial or complete Israeli occupation of Gaza is a particularly unpopular prospect. Even authoritarian regimes could not easily ignore dissatisfaction among their residents.
Israel decides to pursue the boundaries of ‘Biblical Israel’ and annexes the entire Gaza Strip.
Both in this scenario and in the previous scenario, the more than two million Palestinian inhabitants of Gaza Semipermanent would end up in refugee camps or are forced to move to another country. Both options bring possible crimes against humanity, such as ethnic cleansing.
On a diplomatic level, this scenario is poison for every Israeli desire to tie better relationships with other countries in the region. That means, among other things, that they would be even less willing to compensate for large numbers of deported Palestinians. Countries such as Egypt and Jordan feel little at all for a large new refugee flow that can threaten their own stability. The risk that refugees collected can never return, with which both the aforementioned countries have experience with regard to the Palestinians, plays a role.
Prime Minister Netanyahu warned Israelis a day before the start of the current offensive that they had to prepare themselves for a period of international “insulation” that might take years.
Israel Has Launched a New Ground Offensive in Gaza City. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Government Still Has No Clear Answer on What the Future of the Gaza Strip Should Look Like. We are looking at three possible scenarios.
In The Past Twenty Years, Various Israeli Cabinets Have Used The Division Between Gaza (Hamas) and the West Bank (Palestinian Authority, PA) to Play the Palestinians Off Against Each Other and to Prevent the Pa From Effective Striving for a Palestinian. Netanyahu is Considered One of the Main Drivers of That Policy.
Israel Treated Hamas As An (Indirect) Negotiating Partner and Allowed The Extremist Organization to Receive Financial Support From Abroad. The Number of Work Permits for Gazans Who Wanted to Work in Israel Doubled Under Netanyahu: From About ten Thousand to About Twenty Thousand.
At the same time, Gaza was surrounded by (often automated) defense lines that were supposed to Guarantee Israeli Security. The Hamas Terrorist Attacks on October 7, 2023, Brutally Put An End to the Idea That Israel Could Encapsulate and Forget The Palestinian Issue. In The Past Two Years, The Israeli Response Has Been So Violent That The Country Is Now Being Accused of Genocide from Several Quarters.
For the Israeli Government and Most Jewish Israelis, the First Scenario We Are Looking At Is Therefore An Absolute No-Go.
Israeli Troops withdraw from the Gaza Strip. The Blockade of the Enclave – Israeli Control over The External Borders – is Tighted.
Experts Point Out That Hamas would not consider a long-term ceasefire, in which the Group Continues to Rule in Gaza, AS A Precursor to Lasting Peace. More as a battle puse in which Both camps prepare for the next round of violence. Even if Israelis can Bring Themselves to Do Business with Hamas Again, That Remains A Risk.
The Bottom Line is that Gaza Needs Some Form of Civilian Authority, No Matter What Happens. Alternatives are Conceivable to Maintaining a Hamas Regime, But they are Difficult to Realize.
For Example, The Palestinian Authority Has Little Desire to Play a Role in Governing Gaza in This Scenario. The Government of Leader Mahmoud Abbas is corrupt and ineffective. Many Palestinians see the pa as a puppet of Israel and that would not be much better. The pa does not want to return to Gaza “Riding on An Israeli Tank,” Abbas Told the US in 2023. Arab Countries in the Region also has no interest in Such a Role as Governor of Gaza. The Chances That, for Example, The Un (which Israel has Little Good to Say About) Can provide a Kind of Multinational Interim Government or Peacekeeping Force are Limited.
Israel Could Try To Set Up A New Palestinian Civilian Administration in Gaza Itelf, But Experts Consider It Inevitable That would be possible all this BE Infiltrated by Hamas Or Similar Groups.
Israel annexes The North of the Gaza Strip and Establishes Military Buffer Zones and Settlements there. The Gazan Population is forcible displaced, Turning the South of the Enclave Into a Huge Refugee Camp.
The Buffer Zones would serve to protect the safety of Southern Israeli Cities and Villages. Western Allies of Israel would protest Against the State of Affairs.
Iran and its Lebanese Ally Hezbollah have bone crushingly defeated by Israel in the past year. That does not alter the fact that scenario, like the next scenario (full occupation), would lead to greater regional instability and an increased risk of conflicts If they regain strength in the future.
Before October 7, 2023, Israel Tried to Normalize Relations with Arab Countries in the Region. Establishing Diplomatic Relations with Saudi Arabia is still a desire in Tel Aviv. Among the Populations of Arab Countries, a partial or complete Israeli Occupation of Gaza is a particularly unpopular prospect. Even Authoritarian Regimes would not Easily Be Able to Ignore Discontent About this Among Their Residents.
Israel Decides to Pursue the Borders or ‘Biblical Israel’ and Annexes the Entire Gaza Strip.
In Both This Scenario and the Previous Scenario, The More Than Two Million Palestinian Residents of Gaza would end up in semi-permanent refugee camps or be forced to move to another Country. Both Options Involve Possible Crimes Against Humanity, Such as Ethnic Cleansing.
On the Diplomatic Front, This Scenario is Poison for Any Israeli Desire to Forge Better Relations with Other Countries in the Region. This Means, Among Other Things, That they would be just less willing to recoEive Large Numbers of Deported Palestinians. Countries Such as Egypt and Jordan Have Little Interest in a Large New Influx of Refugees That Could Threaten Their Own Stability. The risk that refugees who are tasks in May never be able to return, which Both Countries have experience with in Relation to the Palestinians, also plays a role.
Prime Minister Netanyahu Warned Israelis a Day Before the Start of the Current Offensive that they should go prepare for a period of International “Isolation” That Could Last for Years.