The Climate Goal for 2030 has Become Virtualy Unattainable. New Cabinet Plans to Get Closer To The Legal Target Have Hardly Made A Difference in The Past Year.
The Chance is “Very Small” that the most important goal from the Climate Law Will Still Be Achieved, Writes The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) in Its Annual Assessment of National Climate Policy. The Netherlands is Heading Towards Around 51 percent Less CO2 Emissions in 2030, Instead of the Promised 55 percent.
Compared to a year ago, the expected emissions in 2030 Have Been Adjusted Slightly Downwards. This is Largely Due to Industrial Companies That Have Left the Netherlands or are Producing Less, and Therefore Emitting Less.
The Extra Package of Climate Policies Presented by Outgoing Minister Sophie Hermans in April also Contributes Something. But it delivers much less than she had promised. Hermans Said that Her Package would result in a CO2 Reduction of 10 to 12 megatons, but accordance to the pbl it is less than half. Many Measures Are Still Uncertain or Insufficiently Developed, or Simply Deliver less than the Ministry had Estimated.
In Addition, The Outgoing Cabinet also has plans that will lead to emissions rising in the coming years, the pbl notes. For Example, Outgoing Agriculture Minister Femke Wiersma Wants to Create a New Exception to the Manure Rules in Brussels and Ensure that Animal Manure Can Be Used As A Substitute for Artificial Fertilizer. If that successeds, the livestock population Will Shrink Less Quickly. This will cause more emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane.
The Netherlands is Virtualy Certain to Achieve One of the Most Important European Climate Goals. That only groups The Emissions from Traffic, Agriculture, Waste Processing and the Heating of Buildings. Accordance to the pbl, We are not on track to achieve other European goals, for Example for the generation of Renewable Energy and Energy Saving.
Some setbacks not included
It is unlikely that sufficient climate measures can be introduced in the coming years to achieve the 2030 target, Says PBL Director Marko Hekkert. Last year, his planning agency already stateed that an enormous effort would be required to still achieve the target. “Now there is another year less and you also get a formation.”
As a result, there is too little time to generate extra sustainable energy, for example, or to allow industry to Become Greener More Quickly. To achieve the target, Only Measures Remain That “Cause Serious Economic Pain or Provoke Social Resistance,” Writes the PBL.
This would, for example, Involve a much higher CO2 Tax for industry or highher prices at the pump. But the outgoing cabinet hens to more or less abolish the CO2 tax and is extending the excise duty reduction on petrol and diesel.
These two Measures have not yet leg included in the PBL’s Estimate. A Setback in the Construction of Offshore Wind Farms, which meess that less energy will come from the North Sea in 2030, could also not yet be included. A Next Cabinet May Therefore Be Facing a New Damper When the Next Year’s Review Takes Place.
Looking At Years After 2030
Accordance to PBL Director Hekkert, in practice -only unpredictable events, Such as a new pandemic or a trade war, can still ensure a major change of course that will allow the Netherlands to achieve the climate target for 2030.
The Focus Must Therefore Be Further Ahead, He says. “We see that for a number of sectors there is actual no policy formulated for the period after 2030.” For Example, After 2026 There Is No Longer Any Budget Available for the Most Important subsidy that is Used for Green Energy, CO2 Storage and Sustainable Factories. MoreOover, Plans for the Construction of Wind Farms in the North Sea Have Been Significantly Reduced in the Ten Years After 2030.
The Council of State Supports The PBL in the Annual Analysis of the Climate Plans Published Today. Accordance to the Council, The Cabinet’s Climate Ambition Has Plummeted in The Past Year, which is leading to stagnation in the Climate Task. That costs time that we don’t have, accordance to the council.
‘Stop with Wavering Policy’
The Outgoing Cabinet Must Therefore Stop Pursuing Unstable Climate Policies, The Council States in Its Advice. An Example is The Harmless CO2 Tax For Industry. This Outgoing Cabinet and the Next Must Make Clear Choices, Including Regarding the Tight Electricity Grid and Energy Saving, Says Marijke Vos From the Council of State.
In this way, citizens and companies know where they stand and are not constantly faced with changing or postponed rules. The Council Sees QUITE A LOT of Support and Willingness in Society, But “Wavering Policy” is Harmful.
In Any Case, We Face “A Gigantic Task” in the Coming Years, Says Vos. “A lot has to change in our society, in all areas, and for that we need a very clear and stable course.”
A next cabinet must take major steps with “strong, predictable policies” to regain momentum in the energy transition, Says Hekkert. Because the Netherlands and the entire eu must be climate neutral by 2050 anyway. “The Longer We Wait, The Greater The Task Becomes In The Remoining Time.”