Russia will continue its fight in Ukraine, even if it means facing additional sanctions from the United States. That’s according to sources close to the Kremlin. President Vladimir Putin believes his country can handle that extra economic adversity.
“As far as Putin is concerned, no one has seriously listened to his demands yet,” a source told news agency Reuters.
Russia wants to annex several Ukrainian regions, a toothless Ukrainian army, guarantees that the country will not become a NATO member, and ideally a new Moscow-aligned government in power. “As long as those goals are not achieved, Putin will continue to fight.”
A second source at the Kremlin says that the stated goals are so important to Putin that he will accept economic damage from new American sanctions. The president expects the Russian economy to be able to withstand a beating.
US President Donald Trump gave Russia an ultimatum on Monday. Moscow has fifty days to reach an agreement with Ukraine. If that fails, there will be “very heavy tariffs”.
Trump spoke negatively about Putin during the press moment. He said he was “very unhappy” with his counterpart’s attitude. Yet he is “not done with him yet,” Trump said a little later in an interview with BBC News.
One of the Kremlin sources tells Reuters that Putin himself still sees enough room to achieve his goals without offending Trump.
‘Continuing to fight must come at a high price’
In addition, Putin still seems convinced that the Russian army is winning in Ukraine. As a result, according to Moscow, it pays to continue looking for weak spots in the Ukrainian defense, says a third source.
“If that defense can be breached, the Ukrainian regions of Dnipro, Sumy and Kharkiv might be conquered,” says the Kremlin source.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) does not see that happening any time soon. The think tank does report a Russian advance, but it is still happening slowly. And attempts to encircle strategic Ukrainian strongholds on the front are progressing slowly.
According to the ISW, only setbacks on the battlefield can change Putin’s mind. But that requires more than just the promised air defense systems. According to the think tank, Ukraine must be able to count on a timely and continuous supply of Western military support, so that the army can strike back not only in the air but also on the front.
This, in combination with economic pressure from sanctions, can push Putin towards the negotiating table. Continuing to fight must literally and figuratively be made too costly for Moscow, advises the think tank.