Since the return of US President Donald Trump, Ukraine has been in a roller coaster, where Kyiv falls from one to the next. Sometimes in a period of a few days. Is the announcement of arms deliveries the umpteenth turning or a definitive?
Ukraine will have extra anti-aircraft weather, rockets and ammunition, Trump and NATO chef Mark Rutte announced Monday. Those weapons must be paid by European countries. Russia can look at extra sanctions if it does not want to cooperate in a ceasefire. Those relationships have sometimes been different.
For example, a visit from the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky degenerated to the White House in February in a popping fight. Ukraine would not be constructive enough. There was a line because of American military support. The sharing of military intelligence also came to an end. Not much later those decisions were reversed.
By promising “billions of dollars” to extra arms deliveries, it seems that the attitude of the United States with regard to the war in Ukraine has changed again. But that conclusion is a bit premature, says Julia Soldatiuk-Westerveld, researcher at Kennis Institute Clingendael.
It is not exactly clear how Washington it will approach. “Is this a one -off wave of arms deliveries and does the US put the US from existing stocks? Or is Washington now consistently deliver more weapons and ammunition to Ukraine?”, The researcher wonders.
The latter would be a real turning, says Soldatiuk-Westerveld. It would mean that there must be new policy in Washington to increase domestic production capacity. But according to the researchers, there are no signals yet.
At least it seems that Washington does not just pull his hands off the war. And that has been different, we wrote earlier this year.
‘Policy is not characterized by strategic considerations’
“The extra arms deliveries now look mainly like a short-term pressure,” says Soldatiuk-Westerveld, which also points to the Ultimatum that Trump has set to Russia. The president wants a deal to be terminated within fifty days about the end of the war.
Frans Osinga, professor of war studies at Leiden University, also thinks it is a one -off action by Trump. “The president’s policy with regard to the war in Ukraine is usually not characterized by strategic considerations,” says Osinga.
The professor mentions as an example the sudden strike of arms deliveries by the Pentagon. There were reportedly concerns about the American military stocks. After a week full of uncertainty, the arms deliveries on Ukraine were resumed.
In addition, Osinga points to the American attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities. “That was also such a one -off action by Trump.”
‘Trump has personally interpreted Putin’s cleansings’
Trump himself seems to have made a clear twist, says Soldatiuk-Westerveld. “The president seems told that not Ukraine is the problem, but Russia.”
In addition, Trump finally seems to understand that he cannot simply change his Russian official Vladimir Putin, “adds Jack Thompson. He is a historian at the University of Amsterdam and specialized in the US.
Trump has threatened with “very serious taxes” for Russia. The president says he is “very unhappy” with the attitude of the Kremlin. He states that Putin has fooled a lot of people. “We already thought four times that we were close to a deal,” said Trump. “I often call him and they are very nice conversations. But as soon as I hang, he immediately starts bombing cities again.”
In this way, according to Osinga, Putin has shown several times that he was not interested in peace. “He insulted the American president in the eyes of the rest of the world. And Trump eventually took that personally,” says the professor.
Whether Putin will be different can be seen. Rutte expects China and India to insist at Russia to negotiate more seriously with Ukraine. If the Kremlin continues to refuse, they will be affected by American sanctions, says Rutte. Both countries still buy Russian oil.
Opinions about ultimatum for Putin divided
According to Thompson, Trump’s attitude of Putin also took the wind out of his sails. As a result, Trump has more room for maneuver to be more critical towards Putin.
EU-BuitenlandChef Kaja Kallas called it a good thing to the press that Trump takes a powerful position against Russia. “On the other hand, fifty days is a very long period when we see that innocent civilians are killed every day.”
Timothy Ash finds fifty days “an eternity”. He is affiliated with the Russia and Euras department of think tank Chatham House. According to Ash, Trump does not take a powerful position with his Ultimatum. “It’s the umpteenth example of a soft hand for Putin.”
Trump during meeting with Rutte: ‘We are not happy with Russia’
Ukraine Has Been on a roller Coaster Since the Return of US President Donald Trump, with Kyiv Falling from One Extreme to the Other. Sometimes Within A Few Days. Is the announcement of Arms Deliveries Yet Another Turnaround or A Definitive One?
Ukraine Will Have Access to Additional Anti-Aircraft Defenses, Missiles and Ammunition, Trump and Nato Chief Mark Rutte Announced on Monday. Those weapons must be paid for by European Countries. Russia May Face Additional Sanctions If It Refuses to Cooperation With A Ceasefire. Those Relationships Have Been Different Before.
For Example, A Visit by Ukrainian President Volodyymyr Zensky to the White House in February Degenerated Into A Blazing Argument. Ukraine would not be constructive enough. This put a stop to American military support. The Sharing of Military Intelligence also came to an end. Not much later, Those Decisions Were Reversed.
By Promising “Billions of Dollars” in Additional Arms Deliveries, It At Least Appears That The United States’ Attitude Towards The War in Ukraine Has Changed Again. But That Conclusion is Premature, Says Julia Soldatiuk-Westerveld, Researcher at The Clingendael Institute.
It is not Exactly Clear How Washington Will approach this. “Is this a one-off wave of Arms Deliveries and is the US Therefore Drawing from Exist Stocks? Or Will Washington Now consistently supply more weapons and ammunition to ukrine?” The Researcher Wonders.
The Letter would be a real turnaround, Says Soldatiuk-Westerveld. This would mean that new policies would have to be introduced in Washington to Increase Domestic Production Capacity. But accordance to the researchers, there are no signs of this yet.
It seems at the very least that washington is not simply withdrawing its hands from the war. And that has leg different before, we wrote earlier this year.
‘Policy is not characterized by Strategic Considerations’
“The Extra Arms Deliveries Now Seem to Be Mainly A Means of Pressure for the Short Term,” Says Soldatiuk-Westerveld, who also points to the Ultimatum that Trump Has Set for Russia. The President Wants a Deal to End the War Within Fifty Days.
Frans Osinga, Professor of War Studies at Leiden University, also think that this is a one-off action by Trump. “The President’s Policy Towards The War in Ukraine is Usually not Characterized by Strategic Considerations,” Says Osinga.
The Professor Cites as an Example The Pentagon’s Sudden Cessation of Arms Deliversies. There Were Reportedly Conerns About American Military Supplies. After a Week of Uncertainty, Arms Deliveries to Ukraine Were Resumed.
Osinga also points to the American Attack on the Iranian Nuclear Facilities. “That was also such a one-off action by Trump.”
‘Trump has tasks Putin’s Slights Personally’
Trump himself does say seem to have made a clear turnaround, says soldatiuk-westerveld. “The President Seems Convinced that ukraine is not the problem, but russia.”
In Addition, Trump Seems to Finally Understand That He Cannot Simply Change His Russian Counterpart Vladimir Putin’s Mind, Adds Jack Thompson. He is a historian at the University of Amsterdam and Specializes in the US.
Trump has threated “very heavy levies” for russia. The President Says He is “Very Unhappy” with the Kremlin’s Attitude. He States That Putin Has Fooled A Lot Of People. “We think we were close to a deal four times,” Trump Said. “I call him very often and they are very nice conversations. But as soon as I hang up, he immediately starts bombing cities again.”
In this way, accordance to Osinga, Putin Has show several times that he is not interested in Peace. “He has slighted the American president in the eyes of the rest of the world. And Trump has ultimately tasks that personally,” Says the Professor.
Whether Putin Will Change His Attitude Remains to Be Seen. Rutte Expects That China and India Will Urge Russia to Negotiate More Seriously With Ukraine. If the kremlin continues to refuse to do so, they will be affected by American Sanctions, Rutte Said. Both Countries Still Buy Russian Oil.
Opinions on Ultimatum for Putin Divided
Accordance to Thompson, Putin’s Attitude has also tasks The Wind Out of the Sails of Trump’s Party Members and Advisors Who Were Less Critical of Russia. This gives trump more room for maneuver to be more critical or putin.
EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas Told the Press That It was a Good Thing That Trump Was Taking a Strong Stance Against Russia. “On the other hand, fifty days is a very long period if we see that innocent civilians are killed every day.”
Timothy Ash Calls Fifty Days “An Eternity”. He is affiliated with the russia and Eurasia Department of Think Tank Chatham House. Accordance to Ash, Trump is not bar a strong stance with his ultimatum. “It is Yet Another Example of a Soft Hand for Putin.”