Orange lives between hope and fear at the European Championship in Switzerland after the thrashing against England. Elimination in the group stage threatens the team of national coach Andries Jonker, but there is still a small chance of reaching the quarter-finals.
Due to the defeat against England and France’s victory over Wales later in the evening, the Netherlands is third in group D, with three points from two matches. France leads the group with six points. England, like the Netherlands, has three points, but has a better goal difference.
The denouement in the group follows on Sunday, when the Netherlands plays against leader France at 9:00 PM and England meets the virtually eliminated Wales at the same time. The best two countries of the group advance to the quarter-finals.
So it looks very bad for Orange.
There are still scenarios in which Orange does reach the quarter-finals. Even a draw against France, which impressed on Saturday with a 2-1 victory over title defender England, can be enough for a place in the quarter-finals. See below which scenarios those are.
Early European Championship exit threatens: these scenarios can save the Orange women
Scenario 1: Orange wins and England spills points against Wales
It is almost unthinkable, but nothing can be ruled out in football. If the Netherlands settles with France and England does not win against Wales, Orange will still reach the last eight of the tournament in Switzerland.
In fact: the Netherlands will even take the group win. In the event of a tie in points, UEFA does not look at the goal difference, as happens in the Eredivisie, but at the mutual result. That is then in favor of the Netherlands in relation to France.
Please note: this chance is particularly small in advance. Wales was previously no match for the Netherlands (3-0) and France (4-1) and has only scored once so far. The European Championship debutant is also the lowest ranked country in this European Championship. England has now also acquired the taste.
The Netherlands must also see to deal with a title candidate. Is that possible, four days after the setback against the English team of national coach Sarina Wiegman?
Final standings in case of Orange victory and England draw
1. Netherlands 3-62. France 3-6
3. England 3-4
4. Wales 3-1
Scenario 2: Draw Orange enough for a place in the quarter-finals
There is even a scenario possible in which the Netherlands needs one point against France for a place in the quarter-finals. Then title defender England must lose to number thirty in the world.
In that case, France will take the group win with six points, the Netherlands will finish second with four points and Wales will be third with three points. England will then even end up at the very bottom on the basis of the mutual result.
This is mainly a theoretical scenario. The chance of this final position is almost nil.
Final standings in case of Orange draw and England defeat
1. France 3-72. Netherlands 3-4
3. Wales 3-3
4. England 3-3
Scenario 3: Orange must win by three goals
The most obvious scenario is that England wins against Wales, which presents the Netherlands with a very difficult task. Orange must then win against France by no less than three goals.
That’s how it is: if the Netherlands and England win, France, England and the Netherlands will all have the same number of points. As previously mentioned, UEFA then looks at the mutual result of the teams that are equal in points. In short: the results against Wales do not count then.
Yet UEFA still cannot appoint the two best teams. France won from England, England won from the Netherlands and the Netherlands won from France. That is why UEFA looks at the goal difference of the three teams in the mutual encounters.
Conclusions can be drawn from this. England lost 2-1 to France, but won 4-0 against the Netherlands. As a result, England comes to a goal difference of +3 in the mutual encounters. France is currently at +1 and the Netherlands at -4.
The Netherlands can normally no longer catch up with England, but France can. What is needed for that? A victory with three goals difference. Then the Netherlands comes to -1, France comes to -2 and the quarter-final place is still a fact for Orange.
Final standings in case of 3-0 victory Orange and 1-0 victory England
1. England 3-6 (+4)2. Netherlands 3-6 (+2)
3. France 3-6 (+1)
4. Wales 3-0 (-7)
Final standings in mutual encounters1. England 2-3 (+1)
2. Netherlands 2-3 (-1)
3. France 2-3 (-2)