There were narrow victories in both houses of Congress, but Donald Trump’s extensive tax and budget law has been passed. The ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ once again shows how much power the American president has over the Republican party.
Trump will sign the 887-page law on Friday, the day the United States celebrates its independence. The president will have B-2 aircraft fly over, with which bunker busters, the heaviest conventional bombs in the world, were deployed above Iran last month.
“There is no better birthday present for the United States than this,” Trump said on Thursday evening, a few hours after the law had passed a tense vote in the House of Representatives. Earlier, the law had narrowly survived the Senate and a first vote in the House.
The law makes tax cuts from Trump’s first presidential term permanent. These are mainly beneficial to the richest Americans and large companies. In addition, Trump fulfills a number of his election promises with the (temporary) reduction of taxes on tips and overtime.
The law also contains some major expenses. Immigration service ICE, responsible for deportations, will receive approximately $100 billion extra in the coming years. That is a substantial increase compared to the current budget of $10 billion. More money will also go to Defense.
With the adopted law, Trump is in a mood of triumph. Last week, the Supreme Court made a ruling that makes it more difficult for lower judges to oppose his decrees. At the same time, he got NATO allies to invest more in Defense. And a week earlier, the president claimed a victory in the Middle East after bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities. Incidentally, there does not seem to be any question of the “total destruction” that Trump spoke of.
Trump’s power over the party
The ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ now joins that list of windfalls for Trump. That was not self-evident. The Republicans have a majority in both houses of Congress, but votes were difficult. There was also criticism of the package of measures in Trump’s own party.
The criticism is mainly focused on two things: reducing social provisions and the increasing national debt. In addition, cuts are being made to sustainable energy, which caused a stir on X with former confidant Elon Musk. The Tesla CEO is fiercely opposed to the law.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the American equivalent of the General Court of Audit, predicts that the national debt will increase by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next ten years. That worries Americans, because the US pays interest on the national debt.
Currently, the US spends one-eighth of the government budget on interest. In the coming years, that percentage could rise to one-sixth.
“This is not fiscal responsibility. This is not what we agreed on,” members of an ultraconservative group in the House said in a joint statement. Chip Roy, the Republican representative from Texas, said that the law “increases the national debt” and violates conditions of a budget law. Other Republicans such as Keith Self called the law “a moral and fiscal bankruptcy”.
Eventually, Self and Roy both voted in favor. For hours, Trump and his team were reportedly on the phone to get Republicans in the House on his side. According to CNN, this was accompanied by the necessary promises and threats.
It characterizes the influence that the president has within his party. “I think I have more power now than in my first term,” Trump said when asked on Thursday.
Cutting Social Security
It is the poorest Americans who ultimately pay for the costs. Calculations by the CBO show that the richest Americans will improve by about 10 percent with the law. The situation of the poorest residents deteriorates by 10 percent.
For example, Medicaid is hit hard. That is the health insurance for poor Americans. In the next ten years, the cuts could amount to 1 trillion dollars, thinks healthcare think tank KFF. The CBO expects that this will cause twelve million people to lose their access to healthcare.
The SNAP program is also being curtailed. That is a kind of electronic food stamp system on which 42 million Americans depend. According to The New York Times, millions of people lose their entire contribution, while many more people see their help shrink.
Possible problems at the midterms
The Democrats want to make the law a spearhead in the midterm elections next year. During these elections, seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate are re-elected. According to polls by KFF, 64 percent of Americans are against the law.
Some Republicans who are threatening to lose their seat were therefore critical of the law. In the districts where they can be elected, many people are dependent on that care. “By putting this gigantic ax in Medicaid, it becomes a political problem,” says Thompson. “It gives the Democrats a huge amount of ammunition for the upcoming elections.”
Although Republicans tried in vain to realize adjustments, they eventually relented. “The short answer to the question of why is also here that it is Trump’s party,” says Thompson. “There is a lot to lose if you turn against Trump. He and his allies quickly threaten that they will ensure that you will never be elected again. The culture within the Republican Party shows authoritarian traits.”
Only three senators and two deputies voted against. Incidentally, part of the measures will only take effect after the midterms. That could be a windfall for the deputies.