The attacks by Israel on Iran began on Thursday night, but there is a long history leading up to this. Israel has been closely monitoring Iran’s suspected nuclear program for over fifteen years (and probably even longer). It has never waited for or trusted diplomatic efforts to reach a conclusive agreement. With sabotage actions and targeted attacks inside and outside Iran, Israel has never been idle.
Israel’s first attack is nothing short of a violation of international law, even though there are sufficient signals that Iran was pushing the boundaries. A so-called hedging strategy: preparing everything in case, but just within the rules.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently accused Iran of secretly enriching uranium. Iran reacted furiously and threatens to withdraw from the treaty against nuclear weapons. A treaty that Israel is not a member of, while it possesses nearly a hundred nuclear weapons itself.
It is somewhat remarkable that the West has understanding for the Israeli attack and speaks of self-defense. This probably has more to do with the aversion to the Iranian regime than with legal consequences. Especially on Friday, immediately after the Israeli attacks, the words from the West were rather weak. They were mainly “concerned”, “regretted” the attack, and hoped that both countries would remain calm.
Netanyahu puts Trump to shame
There was remarkably little attention for the tense conversation between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump in the lead-up to the attack. Trump gave Iran an ultimatum on Friday: strike a deal “before there’s nothing left”. New nuclear negotiations were scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday.
Netanyahu eagerly jumped into that gap and has put Trump to shame for the umpteenth time. He deliberately pushed the boundaries because he knows that the US will support him when push comes to shove. Netanyahu is successfully gambling on Trump’s vanity.
The US president had words of praise for the attacks, and in a sense even claimed them. But in the meantime, the hope for a political solution is gone, and a nuclear outburst in the Middle East is a big step closer.
What does Netanyahu actually want?
The big elephant in the room is the question of what Netanyahu actually wants to achieve. I come to four objectives:
The war may last for days or weeks, but an interim assessment can already be made.
Reportedly, Israel cannot achieve objective 1 without involving the US in the war, because it needs the heaviest American bombs for that. The US is (not yet) being tempted, although Iran is ripe for demolition. Israel has managed to hit the nuclear factory near the city of Natanz, one of the three Iranian sites where uranium is enriched, with bombs from aircraft. The factory is located approximately 40 meters underground. To also disable the underground factories near Fordow and Isfahan, American bombs are needed.
Objective 2 seems to have been achieved. According to French colleagues, the Israeli secret service, the Mossad, has disabled at least a third of the Iranian air defense. The old Iranian MiGs and F-5s are no match for the Israeli F-16s and F-35s.
Objective 3 has been reasonably achieved. Fourteen Iranian nuclear specialists are said to have already been killed. The Mossad apparently knew exactly where they lived or stayed.
Objective 4 does not necessarily have to be for the US. The Americans mainly want a renewed nuclear deal with watertight controls. That Khamenei is still alive is probably the only ‘success’ of Trump, who put a stop to that with Netanyahu.
Intelligence services are said to have warned Trump that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps might seize power if Khamenei falls. That could further threaten the safety of the more than 43,000 American soldiers in the region. Not to mention the safety of Israel. That is also a reason for Israel to escalate the hunt for leaders of Quds, the army of the Revolutionary Guard.
Israel is stronger than Iran (thanks to the US)
The strength and number of the approximately three thousand missiles that Iran can deploy are disappointing. Although they eventually achieved some results in Israel, the Iranian revenge attack began with a small three hundred drones that did nothing. The Israeli attacks have significantly limited Iran’s ability to launch and fuel drones and missiles.
In addition, there are American frigates with air defense capabilities nearby. The aircraft carrier Carl Vinson can assist if necessary, followed in the extreme case by aircraft carriers Washington and Nimitz.
So Trump has his own interests, and his vanity is being played by Netanyahu. Iran is the underdog and is reportedly already begging for mercy.