Hundreds of targets attacked simultaneously, a significant part of the army command eliminated, and nuclear scientists killed: that is what Israel did in Iran on Thursday night into Friday. Operation Rising Lion has been in preparation for months. Experts explain how. “Israel can enter without knocking.”
The preparations began in November 2024, after the death of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. That is according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “But Iran’s nuclear program has been a thorn in Israel’s side for over twenty years,” says Martijn Kitzen. He is a professor of Irregular Warfare & Special Operations at the Dutch Defense Academy.
Therefore, it is not surprising to think that Israel has been gathering information about the nuclear program, the people working on it, and how that program can be slowed down or disabled for years. Israel has the right resources for that, says war studies professor Frans Osinga to NU.nl. “Israel is carrying out a large-scale and long-term intelligence operation in Iran.”
For example, Israel has reconnaissance assets in space. For example, sensors that can pick up and locate electrical signals from radio systems. “For example, the IDF knows where the Iranian air defense systems are located and can track down army headquarters,” says Osinga. He would not be surprised if Israel also has spies walking around in Iran. All that collected intelligence forms the basis of Operation Rising Lion.
With the help of that, Israel has disabled several air defense systems of Iran, so that the army could “enter without knocking,” says Osinga. “Without defense systems, Iran does not see, for example, where and when Israeli aircraft are flying over. They can also stop attacks with more difficulty.”
Partly because of this, Israel has managed to reach more than a hundred targets, including Iranian nuclear scientists and important parts of the nuclear program. You can read which targets Israel has hit exactly in the article below.
Weapons smuggled in and spies among the population
To disable the air defense systems, Israeli intelligence is suspected of smuggling weapons into Iran. For example, via trucks. So far, there is little evidence to be found for this, but according to Kitzen, it is almost inevitable. “For example, anti-tank missiles have been used. You can only fire them at about 2 kilometers from the target.” There are also reports of drones that have taken to the air from Iran.
Kitzen compares the Israeli attack to the Ukrainian attack on Russia last month, in which drones were also used that were already on Russian territory. But it also reminds him of the attack with the beepers in Lebanon in September last year. Then thousands of beepers exploded that many Hezbollah members use as a means of communication. Israel was behind the attack, in which thousands of people were injured. “It shows how deeply Israel can infiltrate a country.”
And according to Kitzen, that is no different now. Images show how residential complexes in Tehran have been damaged by Israeli attacks. Presumably, the killed nuclear scientists or army leaders lived there. To find out their places of residence, it is necessary to have people among the population in Iran. Kitzen refers to a previous event in July 2024. Then the highest leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran.
‘Chaos in Iran’
As the last part of the operation, Israel has disabled important instruments that can be used for a counterattack. For example, there have already been several attacks on ballistic missile installations in Iran on Thursday.
Iran is fighting against Israel and says that it sees the operation as a declaration of war. But according to Kitzen, Iran can do little. “There is now chaos. A significant part of their army command has been eliminated and they have limited resources for a counterattack.” Still, he is afraid of a new regional war.
Especially because the long-prepared attack by Israel is supported by US President Donald Trump. “He is also fiercely opposed to the Iranian nuclear program. If the US gets involved, Iran may choose to attack American targets as well. Then escalation is lurking.”