The Ukrainian attack on Russian air bases was front-page news in dozens of Western media outlets on Sunday. Russia, on the other hand, mainly pretends nothing happened. “Putin needs lies.”
“I see a message about negotiations in Istanbul. One about heavy blows that Russia has dealt to Ukraine during a special military operation. And something about rocket launches in Kazakhstan. But I don’t read anything about this Ukrainian attack,” says historian Nicolaas Kraft van Ermel to NU.nl while viewing the front pages of Russian media. The Russian state press agency TASS also has no reports of the large-scale attack on Monday morning.
That fits into the strategy of Russian President Vladimir Putin, says Kraft van Ermel, who is a lecturer at the University of Groningen. He specializes in Russia, Ukraine, and Poland. “The population doesn’t need to know anything that is negative for Russia.”
During ‘Operation Spiderweb’, Ukraine attacked multiple air bases throughout Russia on Sunday. According to the Ukrainian security service SBU, 41 aircraft were hit, mainly bombers. Of these, fourteen have now been confirmed based on visual material. At least thirteen bombers and a fighter plane appear to be destroyed.
“A masterpiece by Ukraine, a defeat for Putin,” says defense expert Peter Wijninga. But Russia doesn’t talk about that. According to a Kremlin spokesperson, it was a “terrorist act in which a conspirator was arrested”. And the population has to make do with that.
Russia needs lies
The Kremlin’s claim has not been confirmed. But Russia’s story is important, says Kraft van Ermel. Although the country has admitted something, everything is downplayed. For example, the Kremlin calls the attack “a fire at some aircraft” according to press agency Reuters.
Russia would also have “repelled all attacks”. According to the experts, that is not correct. Russia was surprised by the attack, just like everyone in the West.
In addition, the Russian government mainly speaks of “terrorists on their own territory”. Kraft van Ermel: “In this way, the population may well get the feeling that Russia is doing well.” After all, outsiders would have entered their country.
“When it comes to loss, Putin keeps everything secret,” says Micha Kemper. He is professor of East European Studies at the University of Amsterdam. The scale of this attack is “colossal” and forms a “hindrance to the further shelling of Ukraine”. “Putin cannot talk about that.” And so the president spreads lies. “Possibly multiple, to sow confusion,” says Kemper.
Putin cannot lose ‘support’ from citizens
The Kremlin benefits from this, because the support is desperately needed. The government receives at least a kind of passive support from a large part of the population. They want to keep that, because otherwise the Russians will become less and less willing to suffer for the war, Kraft van Ermel thinks. “Life in Russia has really not become more pleasant in the past three years due to growing poverty.”
It must also seem like everything is going smoothly, because Russia needs soldiers. According to the experts, Russia is losing hundreds of soldiers a day. Although there is a kind of conscription that is supported by coercion, that is not ideal according to Kraft van Ermel. “A forced soldier is probably a soldier that you don’t get much out of.” And so the Russian citizen must have the idea that the country is winning.
According to Kemper, the only message that Putin wants to convey is: we are winning and we can do this for a very long time. But nothing could be further from the truth. According to Wijninga, Russia’s troops and materials are not a bottomless pit.
Part of the Russian population will also know that. Some have access to Western media, so they do get parts of the war. “And this attack was so big, it can’t go completely unnoticed,” says Wijninga. But it will not be as much talked about as here in the West. According to Kemper, the Ukrainian attack is too great a loss for Russia for that. “A terrible disgrace”.
Wijninga about the Ukrainian attack
“Ukraine has ingeniously combined existing resources. They have built drones into containers and put them on trucks. Images show that there were about 48 drones in each container.”
“They drove those trucks into Russia via smuggling routes. These routes via Georgia, Armenia or Kazakhstan are also used by the Russians to illegally obtain Western electronics.”
“Russia appears to be careless: incoming traffic is not closely checked and the long border does not appear to be impenetrable. There are also hardly any checkpoints, allowing the trucks to come up to 4,000 kilometers from the border.”
“The trucks were placed in four locations next to aircraft and the drones were remotely controlled. They even made a satellite connection so they could show images. Ukraine is therefore stronger and smarter than we always assume. This attack was a masterstroke.”